Obayashi raised its forecast for operating profit in the year to March 2027 to ¥205bn from ¥180bn, and the company's explanation is specific: with labour shortages pronounced, clients are securing construction workers earlier, which has pulled forward schedules and speeded decisions on change orders in domestic building.
The contractor also lifted sales guidance to ¥3.115tn from ¥2.945tn, ordinary profit to ¥210bn from ¥183bn and net profit attributable to owners to ¥173bn from ¥157bn. Against last year's ¥194.7bn operating profit, the new guide is 5.3% higher. Net profit is still forecast 0.4% below last year's.
| Metric | Previous forecast | Revised forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | ¥2.945tn | ¥3.115tn |
| Operating profit | ¥180bn | ¥205bn |
| Ordinary profit | ¥183bn | ¥210bn |
| Net profit attributable to owners | ¥157bn | ¥173bn |
Domestic building drives the standalone upgrade
On a standalone basis, Obayashi now expects operating profit of ¥145bn, up ¥30bn from the August forecast, and sales of ¥1.69tn. It attributes the rise to higher completed-works revenue and gross profit. The expected completed-works margin is 15.6% (building 14.9%, civil engineering 17.6%), against 14.3% (building 13.0%, civil 17.9%) in the earlier forecast. Civil engineering is the one line where the margin forecast fell.
In the consolidated segment figures, domestic building operating profit is now forecast at ¥112.5bn, up ¥30.5bn, on sales of ¥1.27tn, up ¥70bn. Domestic building orders are forecast at ¥1.615tn, up ¥300bn, partly because a large project planned for order booking in the following fiscal year has been brought forward.
Multiplex adds sales, not much profit
The group-wide upgrade is smaller than the standalone one. Obayashi said the Multiplex acquisition was completed in October and is now in the forecast, adding to the ¥170bn sales increase. Profit rose by less than the standalone figure because of higher labour and M&A-related costs.
The overseas building segment shows the gap. Its sales forecast rises ¥100bn to ¥790bn, but its operating-profit forecast is cut ¥4bn to ¥8.5bn. Overseas building orders are forecast at ¥925bn, up ¥350bn, which the company links to the Multiplex consolidation among other factors. Group orders are now forecast at ¥3.74tn, up ¥640bn from the August figure.
Half-year base and buyback
For the six months to September 2026, sales were ¥1.336tn, up 15.1%, and operating profit was ¥98.4bn, up 22.8%. That is 48.0% of the new full-year operating-profit forecast. Obayashi cited more completed work, additional change orders and a larger share of high-margin projects in domestic building and civil engineering. The interim results are not covered by an auditor review.
The board also approved a buyback of up to 20mn shares, capped at ¥30bn, to run from 16 November 2026 to 29 January 2027, with all shares to be cancelled. The annual dividend forecast is unchanged at ¥94 per share.
In domestic building, Obayashi says it is choosing projects selectively given construction capacity and supply-chain constraints, and plans around annual capacity of about ¥1.2tn. It reports order-time margins at record levels. These statements describe Obayashi alone. See also Earlier Tokyo Brief coverage.