Rakuten Bank raised its full-year profit forecast on 11 November, but shareholders should read the per-share line before the headline. Forecast profit attributable to owners of the parent rises 30.4% to ¥115.0bn, from ¥88.1bn in the August forecast, while forecast earnings per share fall to ¥397.08 from ¥505.10. The year to March 2026 ended at ¥73.1bn and ¥418.76 per share.
A bigger group, not just a better bank
The revised forecast covers April 2026 to March 2027. Rakuten Bank gives three reasons. First, the 1 October share delivery made Rakuten Card and Rakuten Securities Holdings wholly owned subsidiaries, and the forecast now includes their results for October to March. Second, the bank's fund-management income, including interest on loans and purchased monetary claims, is expanding, and its current performance is running ahead of the progress assumed in August. Third, the September domestic policy-rate rise, which the bank names as the main cause, means its net fund-management income is now expected to exceed the original forecast. The release does not say how much of the increase comes from each reason.
The revenue line shows the change in perimeter most clearly. Forecast ordinary revenue is ¥646.8bn against ¥343.5bn in the August forecast, a rise of 88.3%, and forecast ordinary profit is ¥189.5bn, up 50.6%.
| Item | August forecast | Revised forecast | Change | Year to March 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary revenue | ¥343.5bn | ¥646.8bn | +88.3% | ¥255.6bn |
| Ordinary profit | ¥125.8bn | ¥189.5bn | +50.6% | ¥103.1bn |
| Attributable profit | ¥88.1bn | ¥115.0bn | +30.4% | ¥73.1bn |
| Earnings per share | ¥505.10 | ¥397.08 | Not stated | ¥418.76 |
Why the per-share figure falls
The release does not explain the lower EPS forecast or state the share count behind it. The bank's interim report records the share issue that accompanied the deal. It issued 230,890,116 new Class A shares to the sellers, 207,330,443 to Rakuten Group and 23,559,673 to Mizuho Bank. Class A shares carry no votes, receive the same dividend as ordinary shares and can be converted into ordinary shares one for one. After partial conversion, ordinary shares outstanding were 223,936,153, against 174,516,980 at the end of September. Rakuten Group holds 49.93% of the ordinary shares. It has agreed to convert only within a range that keeps its voting ratio at 50% or less. The bank accounts for the deal as a transaction under common control. Readers can follow the ownership background in Earlier Tokyo Brief coverage.
The interim half is the old perimeter
The half-year to 30 September ended before the share delivery took effect, and the interim report records no significant change in the scope of consolidation. Ordinary revenue was ¥163.9bn, up 38.4%. Ordinary profit was ¥63.1bn, up 30.6%, and attributable profit was ¥43.2bn, up 26.9%. Interim EPS was ¥247.41, against ¥194.89 a year earlier.
Rates helped that half, and cost the bank something too. Fund-management income rose ¥42.9bn to ¥133.1bn on larger assets and higher yields after Bank of Japan rate rises. Funding costs rose ¥18.3bn to ¥42.4bn, partly because the bank raised its ordinary deposit rate in February and August. The interim earnings summary is outside the scope of an interim audit by a certified public accountant or audit firm, and the bank cautions that actual results may differ from the forecast.
The forecast therefore compares a group that includes card and brokerage earnings for six months with a prior year that did not. Treat the year-on-year jump in revenue and profit as a change of scope as well as of performance.