Three brewers, one antitrust agency, and the BOJ on AI

Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said AI has already put upward pressure on the economy and prices, while its effects on the neutral rate and unemployment are hard to gauge.

What changed: Speaking at the ECONDAT 2026 Fall Meeting on October 5, Uchida called AI "a big positive demand shock" and said it now features in the bank's Monetary Policy Meetings. He listed four channels: demand; supply, where higher productivity and capital accumulation might affect the neutral rate (r*); financial conditions, where AI-driven stock gains ease them and large bond issuance by AI-related companies lifts long-term rates; and labor. The remarks opened a research conference and do not address the policy rate.

The catch: Uchida said the directions are understood but the extent and timing are not: "We don't have a clear answer yet." His tentative reading is that demand has come first and made financial conditions more accommodative on balance, with a risk of correction if profits do not follow. The effects on r* and on the natural unemployment rate (u*) are "hard to gauge".

Why it matters: He said conventional statistics may not keep up with the speed of AI adoption and that alternative data may help, as he put it, "I hope".

The Personal Information Protection Commission cautioned holders of large personal-data stores to delete records they no longer need and previewed revised technical-security examples that it plans to finalise next April.

What changed: On 7 October the commission cautioned businesses with a high industry share in widely used services, holders of highly sensitive data and others whose leaks would likely harm individuals. It said it has seen cases where widely used services handling large volumes of personal information were hit by unauthorised access. The caution names no company and announces no new penalty.

Details: The draft technical measures sit under five headings, from access control to detecting unauthorised access. Examples include multi-factor authentication, including phishing-resistant forms, for outside, administrator and important-data access; access to personal data only from devices that meet the organisation's standards; regular log analysis; and detection tools such as IDS/IPS and EDR. The commission separates "measures that must be taken", where failure can be judged a violation, from examples a company need not adopt in full.

Why it matters: Article 22 asks businesses to delete personal data without delay once it is no longer needed, and the commission said failure to delete has made some leaks more serious. The revised examples stay a draft until the planned finalisation next April.

The Japan Fair Trade Commission and the SME Agency are convening a closed-door study group because their surveys show price pass-through lagging in deeper supply-chain tiers, with minutes to be published promptly.

What changed: On 7 October the two bodies said they will convene a corporate transactions study group, following a December 2024 study group report. It is a forum for discussion, not a new enforceable rule, and the release makes no finding against any company.

Why now: Citing the SME Agency's follow-up survey to its price negotiation promotion month and the commission's special survey on price pass-through, the agencies say problems remain on three fronts: slow adoption of the rules, weaker pass-through the deeper a company sits in the supply chain, and obstructive practices in individual industries. The release says the logistics designation and the payment notice take effect in April 2027.

What to watch: Meetings will be closed, and the agencies promise to publish minutes promptly. The release gives no first meeting date, so the minutes are where purchasing and supplier-compliance teams will first see the direction of debate.

Tsuruha's six-month sales rose 128.7% to ¥1.276tn against a half that ended before the Welcia integration, with operating profit up 92.6% and full-year guidance left unchanged.

What changed: In its first interim results since combining with Welcia Holdings on 1 December 2025, Tsuruha reported sales of ¥1.276tn for the six months to 31 August 2026. The prior-year half ended before the combination, so the growth rate compares a combined group with a pre-integration one. Operating profit was ¥54.77bn, up 92.6%, and profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥30.25bn, up 48.5%. Goodwill amortisation was ¥12.34bn, against ¥1.41bn a year earlier.

The catch: Operating activities used ¥17.02bn of cash, against a ¥47.1bn inflow a year earlier, and a ¥71.68bn fall in trade payables was the largest negative item. Cash and deposits fell ¥60.69bn, which the release attributes partly to the prior year-end landing on a bank holiday. The equity ratio was 56.4%.

What to watch: Full-year guidance is unchanged at sales of ¥2.555tn, operating profit of ¥99.4bn and net profit of ¥41.5bn, which is 2.7% lower than the previous year. Tsuruha is merging buying departments and building common systems, and expects to file its half-year report on 14 October 2026.

ABC-Mart raised its operating profit forecast by ¥1.6bn to ¥67.2bn but left second-half plans unchanged, pointing to possible weaker consumer sentiment and a November change to Japan's tax-free system.

What changed: The footwear retailer revised its April 8 guidance on October 7. Sales are now forecast at ¥403.0bn, up ¥2.2bn, and operating profit at ¥67.2bn, up from ¥65.6bn. The increase covers only the first half; management kept the second-half plan as set at the start of the year. The full-year dividend forecast stays at ¥80.

The number: For March to August, sales rose 6.4% to ¥202.3bn and operating profit rose 7.4% to ¥36.1bn. In Japan, same-store sales rose 4.5%, and ABC-Mart said a weaker yen drove strong sales to inbound visitors. Overseas sales rose 10.8% to ¥58.7bn, with Korea up 11.3% to ¥37.5bn.

Why it matters: The second-half plan assumes domestic same-store sales up 2.9%. Management names two risks: weaker consumer sentiment as prices rise, and Japan's tax-free system moving to a refund method from November. These are one retailer's assumptions, not independent consumer data.

Warabeya Nichiyo now expects operating profit of ¥6.0bn for the year to February 2027, down from ¥7.7bn, as packaging and energy costs rise, while a separate Ohio plant loss pulls net profit to ¥3.5bn.

What changed: The maker of convenience-store rice balls, bento and sandwiches cut operating profit guidance to ¥6.0bn from the April forecast of ¥7.7bn, below last year's ¥7.44bn. It says packaging material prices and energy costs are now expected to exceed its assumptions because of the prolonged Middle East situation. Of the ¥1.70bn cut, domestic food accounts for ¥1.55bn, overseas ¥120mn and related businesses ¥30mn.

The catch: The first half had already missed. Operating profit fell 25.0% to ¥3.97bn against a ¥4.35bn forecast, on sales up 1.0% to ¥120.85bn. The company cites higher raw material and labor costs and the effect of the Sapporo plant's suspended operations.

The number: Net profit is now forecast at ¥3.5bn, down 27.1% from ¥4.8bn. The company attributes that to the operating pressures plus a special loss for halting operation of its new plant in Columbus, Ohio, which the earnings presentation puts at ¥700mn. Production planned for that plant will move to the Virginia plant. The dividend forecast stays at ¥120 a share.

Seven financial-institution shareholders will sell 3,570,800 CKD shares at a price set between October 19 and 22, and the company has authorised buying back up to 1.3mn shares or ¥5bn.

What changed: This is a sale of existing shares, not new stock. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank is the largest seller with 1,000,000 shares. CKD says Japanese shareholders are reviewing policy-held shares as governance tightens, that it held talks mainly with the financial institutions that own its stock, and that they agreed to sell. It wants to broaden and diversify its shareholder base. Daiwa Securities and SMBC Nikko Securities are joint lead managers and the underwriters take all the shares.

The move: The buyback is capped at 1.3mn shares, equal to 1.94% of shares outstanding excluding treasury stock, and at ¥5bn. CKD cites capital efficiency and shareholder returns, and easing the effect of the sale on supply and demand for its shares. Purchases run on the Tokyo Stock Exchange through December 30, and some or all of the shares may not be bought.

By the numbers: Daiwa may sell up to 535,500 borrowed shares as an over-allotment, with a greenshoe option running to November 20, 2026. The price will be the Tokyo closing price on the pricing date, between October 19 and 22, multiplied by 0.90 to 1.00 for a provisional range, then adjusted for demand. One selling Sumitomo Mitsui bank has agreed to a lock-up of about 180 days from delivery.

Oasis Management's holding in en inc. rose from 14.54% to 15.63% on daily market purchases, and its filing says it plans to add more than 5 percentage points if the shares look undervalued.

What changed: A large-shareholding change report filed on 7 October shows Oasis holding 7,769,539 shares against 49,716,000 outstanding as of 30 September 2026. The 60-day schedule shows daily on-market buying from 3 August to 30 September, stepping up from 42,000 to roughly 60,000 shares a day. Total acquisition funding was ¥12.09bn, all fund money, with no borrowing.

The move: The filing says Oasis is already making proposals to en inc. on delisting and on material changes to capital policy. It lists further proposal categories it plans over the next 12 months, including disposal of important assets, dismissal of a representative director and changes to dividend policy. These are statutory categories, and the report does not say en inc. has agreed to anything.

What to watch: Oasis says it plans to raise its holding by more than 5 percentage points, only if it judges the market price undervalued. Price, quantity and timing are still under consideration, and it plans to act within three months of 30 September but says it could go beyond that window.