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BoJ members split on how fast to reach neutral
Bank of Japan members cannot agree whether to pause or hurry toward neutral, while SoftBank books a charge on AI power equipment and Amazon agrees to show shoppers its cheapest offer.
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lead
BoJ Opinions: Hold or Hurry
BoJ members split on how fast to reach the neutral rate, with some urging quicker hikes
Some members wanted time to judge past hikes; others said underlying inflation has reached 2 percent and the policy rate should reach neutral soon.
What changed: The Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from the October 29 and 30 meeting, dated November 10, describes underlying inflation as generally consistent with the 2 percent target. Members then diverge. One said a little more examination of risks to activity and prices, and of financial conditions, was needed, so keeping the current rate at this meeting was appropriate; another said holding would let the Bank assess the cumulative effects of past hikes.
Why it matters: The other camp wants speed. One member called this a new phase in which the Bank must step up the pace toward neutral, because firms are more resilient to higher rates, past hikes have yet to fully work through and financial conditions remain accommodative. Another put the neutral rate 'considerably above 1 percent'. A third said underlying inflation has already reached 2 percent, yet advised watching conditions for a few months after each hike and to 'make haste slowly'.
By the numbers: The all-items-less-fresh-food CPI is projected to exceed 3 percent toward the end of the fiscal year. One member said anchoring is weaker in Japan than in Europe and the United States. Next spring's wage talks are the named test: one member cited firms planning raises at about this year's rate, while another judged a significant rise in wage growth unlikely.
What to watch: The Bank's ETF sales, which began in January. One member said they have gone smoothly and the pace can change; another urged reassessing the volume that would cause the least disruption, given the governance effects of a central bank holding ETFs. The Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet Office each said they expect the Bank to decide as appropriate. The summary does not attribute opinions to named members.
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Policy, Rules and Trade Data
Amazon Japan to show cheapest offer when none meets rival-price test, under JFTC-approved plan
The Japan Fair Trade Commission approved a five-year commitment plan on 11 November without finding a violation.
What changed: Where no offer is at or below the competitive price, Amazon Japan must show, in a way consumers can easily see, the price, delivery terms, shipper and seller of the lowest-cost offer a shopper can buy, plus an entry point to purchase. The change must run for five years from the day it starts operating.
Why it matters: The JFTC suspected the current arrangement of breaching Article 19 of the Antimonopoly Act as an unfair trade practice. A product page shows one seller's recommended offer, and a seller qualifies only by pricing at or below the lowest price for the identical product among a substantial number of online stores. When no seller qualifies, no offer appears, and to a shopper the product looks as if it is not for sale. The JFTC's views on how this squeezes sellers are assessments in the notice, not established findings.
The catch: The release frames the fix as a display rule. It does not describe Amazon Japan dropping its eligibility algorithm or ending price comparisons with other stores, and it gives no start date for the five-year clock. If the plan is not followed, the commission can revoke the approval under Article 48-5 and reopen its investigation.
METI draft rules ask firms in six priority technologies to consult before moving core know-how abroad
Companies certified for R&D in AI, quantum, chips, biotech, fusion or space would be asked to consult the ministry before certain overseas technology transfers.
What changed: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry opened a public comment period on 9 November on draft rules that would put the amended industrial technology law (Law No. 41 of 2026) into operation. Comments close at 23:59 on 8 December 2026, and the draft cabinet order would take effect on 1 April 2027. The draft decree names six fields: AI and advanced robotics, quantum, semiconductors and telecoms, biotech and healthcare, fusion energy, and space.
Details: Companies with an approved priority R&D plan would be asked to identify core technologies, limit staff access, secure confidentiality pledges from departing employees and sign non-disclosure agreements with suppliers holding part of the know-how. They would also be asked to consult METI in advance, with enough lead time, before actions such as handing over core intellectual property, providing core technology, joint R&D, R&D in another country, or building or expanding an overseas plant so its capacity rises by more than 10%. The request applies when the company learns of a risk of forced transfer of core technology, or of a leak risk because the counterparty violated UN or other international standards in the past five years or operates under foreign-government influence, or when METI itself tells it to consult. A plant is excluded if 85% or more of its output is consumed in the host country.
What to watch: A certified plan is capped at five years, and METI would in principle deliver the certificate within three months of the application. The draft guidelines set field targets, including a domestic quantum computer with more than 10,000 physical qubits by 2030. Comments go in Japanese through e-Gov, by post or by email, and METI says it will not reply individually.
Japan's September current-account surplus falls 45.8% as imports outrun exports
Imports rose 17.8% against 12.8% for exports, pushing goods trade into a ¥187.5bn deficit.
What changed: The current-account surplus shrank to ¥2.37tn in September, according to preliminary figures from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan. Exports rose 12.8% to ¥10.73tn and imports rose 17.8% to ¥10.92tn. The goods balance fell to a ¥187.5bn deficit from a ¥246.6bn surplus a year earlier.
Why it matters: The ministry's customs-basis detail shows crude oil imports up 51.1% in value but only 3.1% in volume, with Japan's crude price at $100.37 a barrel, up 37.4%. The dollar averaged ¥156.41 against ¥147.94 a year earlier. Primary income, which covers returns on overseas investment, was a ¥3.55tn surplus, down ¥1.32tn, mainly on direct-investment income.
Zoom out: For April to September the surplus was ¥17.15tn, down 0.4% from ¥17.22tn, with a ¥1.07tn goods deficit against a ¥142.1bn surplus a year before. All figures are preliminary.
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Earnings and Balance Sheets
SoftBank books ¥597bn charge on US AI power equipment as half-year loss reaches ¥768bn
The charge sits inside a ¥768.0bn six-month loss, while consolidated debt rose ¥7.91tn.
What changed: SoftBank Group lost ¥768.0bn attributable to owners in the six months to 30 September 2026, against a ¥2.92tn profit a year earlier. It booked a ¥597.2bn charge for changes to its procurement plan for power-generation equipment serving US AI data-center projects: ¥457.0bn on non-refundable advance payments and ¥140.2bn on contract changes and settlements.
The catch: Investment gains fell to ¥1.73tn from ¥3.93tn, and SoftBank booked no gain or loss on OpenAI. Consolidated interest-bearing debt rose ¥7.91tn from March to ¥32.59tn, and the equity ratio fell to 23.6% from 29.0%. Financial costs rose ¥450.6bn to ¥790.7bn.
What to watch: SoftBank warns that if external funding for Energy Global's data-center and solar plan does not arrive on the timing, scale or terms it expects, the plan may not proceed as assumed, and delays or cancellations could bring further losses on assets bought for AI infrastructure.
Honda books ¥508.7bn more for EV supplier claims as motorcycles carry the profit
A ¥152.3bn purchase also lifted Honda's Astemo stake to 61.0%.
What changed: Honda recognised ¥508.7bn of additional provision in the six months to September 30 for compensating suppliers after it scaled back its electric-vehicle plans. The charge is an estimate, not a settlement; timing and size depend on supplier talks. The balance of EV-related loss provisions was ¥582.7bn, down from ¥647.5bn after ¥548.0bn of drawdowns.
By the numbers: Revenue rose 13.2% to ¥12.04tn and operating profit rose 48.1% to ¥648.7bn. Motorcycles earned ¥439.0bn, up 19.2%, while four-wheel vehicles posted a ¥5.7bn operating loss, ¥67.2bn better than a year earlier.
What to watch: On October 1, after the half closed, Honda bought a further 21.0% of Astemo's voting rights for ¥152.3bn in cash, lifting its stake from 40.0% to 61.0% and making Astemo a consolidated subsidiary. Initial accounting is unfinished, and the report names no supplier.
ENEOS lifts profit guide by ¥300bn even after a ¥111.8bn renewables write-off
Oil earnings carry the upgrade, while the renewables charge cut attributable profit by ¥97.8bn.
What changed: ENEOS Holdings raised its operating-profit forecast for the year to March 2027 to ¥910bn on 11 November, ¥300bn above its May figure. Forecast attributable profit rises to ¥615bn from ¥415bn. The same notice records a ¥111.8bn renewables impairment.
Why it matters: ENEOS says the upgrade follows Dubai crude and overseas product prices running above its May assumptions, and it forecasts a ¥230bn increase in oil products and other. The new forecast assumes Dubai crude at $95 a barrel, up from $85, and ¥157 to the dollar. The investor presentation assumes the Middle East disruption lasts through the end of March 2027.
The catch: The impairment covers goodwill and related assets from the 2022 acquisition of Japan Renewable Energy, with slower decarbonisation, higher development costs and interest rates, and a higher discount rate as the stated drivers. ENEOS halted onshore wind development except projects already under way, and forecasts a ¥112.0bn full-year renewables operating loss against a ¥1.0bn profit in May. It also raised its full-year dividend forecast to ¥38 from ¥34.
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Deals and Listings
Anthropic's $70–$78 IPO range comes with a founder bloc holding 50.1% of the vote
Pricing is expected on November 19, and a founder vehicle would hold half the vote once the offering closes.
What changed: Anthropic set a preliminary range of $70.00 to $78.00 per Class A share for its Nasdaq listing and expects to fix the price on November 19, 2026. Its extraordinary report to the Kanto Local Finance Bureau, filed November 11, says the number of shares and the final price are undetermined. The amended registration statement describes a Japanese tranche of 38,461,539 to 50,000,000 shares, worth $3.0bn to $3.5bn on the assumed range.
Why it matters: Class A holders get one vote per share. The filing says a Class F share is to be issued to a company whose initial members are the seven co-founders immediately before the offering closes, and that it carries 50.1% of total voting power. Class T, designated for the Long-Term Benefit Trust, elects the directors who form a board majority. Anthropic expects the trust and the founder company together to be able to elect every director.
Details: Proceeds are earmarked for working capital, compute and infrastructure, and hiring, with part meeting an expected $3.8bn tax withholding obligation on vesting restricted stock units at an assumed $74.00 price. A concurrent private placement adds $26bn of non-voting Class N shares, sold to Google, NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC Partners, conditional on the offering closing.
Kamgras 1 lifts Kakaku.com offer to ¥3,700 and extends it to Nov 26
The offer now matches a rival's unconditional price but trails its conditional one.
What changed: Kamgras 1 raised its tender offer for Kakaku.com to ¥3,700 a share from ¥3,683 on November 11, extended the offer period to November 26 and moved settlement to December 3. Kakaku.com had asked on October 27 to discuss a price change.
The catch: The amended filing describes a rival proposal from BCPE Blitz Cayman, the Bain Capital-linked vehicle, at an unconditional ¥3,700 and a ¥3,720 price that applies only if KDDI agrees not to tender. Kamgras 1 says neither price meets the KDDI price threshold, which was ¥3,757 after its October 28 change. The filing does not explain how the threshold is set.
Details: The offer has a minimum of 34,941,000 shares and no cap, and parent-level equity is now capped at ¥227bn, from ¥225bn. Digital Garage and KDDI will not tender; if a squeeze-out follows, Kakaku.com would buy back their shares at ¥3,008 each, up from ¥2,994. Digital Garage expects a special gain of about ¥37bn in standalone accounts if the deal completes in the year to March 2027. Kakaku.com's board supports the offer but leaves the decision to shareholders.
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