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Tankan: factories brighter, December cooler
Japan's factories feel better but expect a cooler December, BOJ opinions split on whether inflation has reached 2%, and SoftBank wires its last $10bn to OpenAI. Cheer comes with an asterisk.
MARKETS
Market pulse
Tokyo equities advanced while the 10Y JGB yield nudged lower.
Sourced from Nikkei, JPX, BOJ, MOF - values, not commentary.
TSE Prime investor flows
| Investor | Week ending |
|---|---|
| Foreign net flow | −¥73.1bn |
| Individual net flow | −¥27.0bn |
| Trust-bank net flow | −¥365.4bn |
Japan Exchange Group, investor-type weekly trading value (TSE Prime)
lead
Tankan Day: Factories Up, December Down
Japan's manufacturers brighten in the Tankan, but firms forecast a softer December
The Bank of Japan's September Tankan put the index for large manufacturers at 24, up 2 points and well above the 17 firms forecast in June. For all firms in all industries it rose to 21 from 18, against a June forecast of 11, but firms expect 15 in December.
What changed: The gains were concentrated in manufacturing. Medium-sized manufacturers rose 6 points to 23 and small manufacturers rose 5 points to 14. Large nonmanufacturers slipped 2 points to 35, medium-sized ones fell 2 points to 24, and small ones held at 15. The survey covers 9,104 enterprises, with a 99.4% response rate.
Why it matters: Firms report tighter staffing and dearer credit. The employment conditions index stands at -38 for all enterprises from -37 in June, with small firms at -42 from -39. The loan interest rate index climbed to 68 from 61, and firms forecast 71 for December. The BOJ's outline gives no explanation for the rise in loan rates.
What to watch: The December column. Large manufacturers expect 21 and large nonmanufacturers 30, and medium-sized firms in both sectors expect declines of 5 points. Large firms plan fixed investment growth of 11.3% this fiscal year, while small firms across all industries plan a 4.7% cut.
secondary
Policy and Regulation
BoJ Opinions Split on Whether Underlying Inflation Has Reached 2%
The Bank of Japan's published opinions from its September meeting differ on whether underlying inflation has generally reached 2 percent, with some urging a rate rise and others a hold, and the summary does not say who argued which.
FSA Backs Fourth Payments Pilot Tying Trade Paperwork to a Megabank Stablecoin
A pilot backed on 29 September would link electronic trade documents to a yen stablecoin the three megabanks plan to issue jointly, and the forum's second meeting in early 2027 is due to bring a roadmap.
FSA floats a lighter licence for in-house reinsurers, with no tax sweetener
The Financial Services Agency wants to tailor licensing and minimum capital for firms insuring only their own group, but assumes no extra tax relief, and would park primary captives for later study.
Japan's audit rule-makers want going-concern checks to run a year past sign-off
A draft audit-standards revision before Japan's Business Accounting Council would have auditors assess going concern for at least a year after accounts are approved for publication, effective for fiscal years ending March 2028.
secondary
Deals and Balance Sheets
Nidec's Restatement Cuts Equity by ¥476.9bn and Leaves Past Payouts Above Distributable Limits
Nidec's restatement of the five years to March 2025 cut net assets by ¥476.9bn and pushed dividends and buybacks above the distributable amount, as management aims to clear the remaining issues in October to obtain an audit opinion.
SoftBank Group Wires Final $10bn to OpenAI, Lifting Its Stake to About 13%
SoftBank Group paid the last $10bn of its $30bn OpenAI top-up on October 1 with senior bond proceeds, taking cumulative investment to $64.6bn and its stake to about 13%, and cancelled $10bn of undrawn bridge capacity.
Rakuten Bank takes full control of Rakuten Card, while Rakuten Group holds 49.95% of its votes
Rakuten Bank took 100% of Rakuten Card and the securities holding company on October 1, paying in Class A shares that leave Rakuten Group with 49.95% of the bank's votes and Mizuho Bank with 10.52%, while Rakuten Group expects a ¥23.0bn tax charge.
Oasis lifts Shibaura Machine stake to 10.14% and says it plans to buy more
Oasis Management says it plans to add more than 5% to its Shibaura Machine holding within three months of 24 September, conditional on price, after lifting its stake from 9.02% to 10.14% and citing serious governance defects.
quick hits
Quick Hits
Japan Logged No Yen Intervention in the Month to 28 September
Read moreThe Ministry of Finance booked zero foreign exchange intervention between 27 August and 28 September, after Katayama's vow of more; the last recorded operations were three in April and May, totalling ¥11.73tn.
Nidec signs ¥103bn sale of Nidec Components to a Carlyle-linked buyer
Read moreNidec has signed a ¥103bn sale of all of Nidec Components to a Carlyle-linked vehicle, with transfer due on 1 December 2026 and the effect on consolidated earnings still being examined.
JR West pays ¥90bn for 20% of Kansai Mirai Bank, with a banking service conditional on a license
Read moreJR West now holds 20.0% of Kansai Mirai Bank after paying Resona ¥90bn, while the bank stays a Resona subsidiary; a banking service targeted for around spring 2027 depends on a banking-agent license.
Pan Pacific signs to take over Toys R Us Japan's stores and online business, pending court approval
Read morePan Pacific International Holdings has signed a sponsor deal for the toy retailer's Japanese business, planned to complete on October 30 if the court grants permission, with landlord consent still needed for the stores it wants to keep.
Tourism agency warns Kyushu hotels against padding prices for quake discount
Read moreThe Japan Tourism Agency has asked prefectures to act against Kyushu operators that build the discount into their prices, up to removing them from the scheme, which covers stays from 1 October.
Synspective Books 20 Electron Launches With Rocket Lab, Its Biggest Launch Deal
Read moreThe satellite company has signed for 20 dedicated Electron launches between 2028 and 2031, and says the deal does not change its December-year guidance.
ALSOK to hold 51.2% of voting rights in the merged NDC through Carlyle vehicle
Read moreALSOK has decided to carry out a merger through its Carlyle-backed vehicle that would lift its voting rights in the surviving company from 28.0% to 51.2%, with the merger planned to take effect on 1 January 2027.
Tokuyama hands domestic cement sales arm to Taiheiyo Cement for ¥37bn
Read moreTokuyama expects a ¥30.5bn special gain and a separate ¥12bn impairment loss from selling its domestic cement sales business, and is still working out whether its full-year forecast changes.