Suruga Bank raised its profit forecasts and its dividend on 30 September 2026, but the upgrade mixes lending momentum with a one-off accounting gain and a policy-rate rise that the bank assumes for January 2027. The revision updates the forecasts the bank published on 14 May 2026.
What the bank raised
For the six months to 30 September 2026, consolidated ordinary profit is now forecast at ¥34.0bn, up from ¥25.0bn (a 36.0% increase). Net profit attributable to parent shareholders is forecast at ¥29.0bn, up from ¥17.0bn (70.6%). The same period a year earlier produced ¥16.7bn and ¥15.8bn respectively.
For the year to March 2027, consolidated ordinary profit goes to ¥56.0bn from ¥47.5bn (17.9%), and net profit to ¥44.0bn from ¥32.0bn (37.5%). Earnings per share are forecast at ¥262.01. The bank says the consolidated revision comes mainly from its standalone results.
| Metric | Previous forecast | Revised forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Ordinary profit | ¥47.5bn | ¥56.0bn |
| Net profit attributable to parent | ¥32.0bn | ¥44.0bn |
| Earnings per share | ¥187.72 | ¥262.01 |
| Annual dividend per share | ¥60 | ¥80 |
What sits under the number
The bank names three standalone drivers, and they differ in quality.
The first is lending. Core gross profit is running ahead of plan because new loan originations and the incorporation of higher interest rates are progressing well. For the second half, the bank has built in a further 0.25% policy-rate increase in January 2027. That is the bank's own planning assumption, not a policy decision.
The second is credit cost. In the first quarter Suruga changed how it values collateral on loans secured by whole investment-property buildings, which released loan-loss allowances. The bank calls the ¥5.6bn reversal a one-off and says it exceeded the initial forecast. It adds that earlier precautionary provisions also helped bring underlying credit costs below the May forecast.
The third is securities. The bank now expects about ¥3.0bn of losses on domestic bond sales for the full year, which the May forecast did not include. For the second half it assumes gains on sales of strategic shareholdings equal to its domestic bond-sale losses, leaving securities gains and losses at zero.
Tax also helps. The bank assumes an effective rate of about 15% for the interim period and about 20% for the year, lower than in the initial forecast, which it lists as a reason net profit beats the May forecast.
Dividend
Both the interim and year-end dividend forecasts rise by ¥10 to ¥40, lifting the annual forecast to ¥80 from ¥60. The year to March 2026 paid ¥22 at the interim and ¥38 at year-end, ¥60 in total. The bank cites its shareholder-return policy, the profit outlook and capital soundness. That policy uses a payout ratio of around 30% as a guide for stable dividends.
The bank adds that its forecasts rest on assumptions it considers reasonable today, and that actual results may differ.