Kyushu Railway Company (JR Kyushu) has put figures on what the 28 July 2026 Kumamoto earthquake costs it, and has cut its net profit forecast while leaving its operating profit forecast unchanged. On 4 November the company cut its forecast for profit attributable to owners of the parent for the year to March 2027 to ¥47.0bn from ¥51.6bn, a reduction of ¥4.6bn or 8.9%. Forecasts for sales (¥520.5bn), operating profit (¥75.0bn) and ordinary profit (¥70.9bn) were left as they were.
Where the damage lands
The company's revision notice and an extraordinary report filed the same day set out the estimates, all described as approximate.
| Channel | Estimate | Where it lands |
|---|---|---|
| Rail passenger revenue, Shinkansen and conventional lines | ¥6.7bn | Revenue decrease |
| Substitute bus operations | ¥400mn | Operating expenses |
| Rail facility damage | ¥9bn | Special loss |
| Station buildings, partial closures | ¥700mn | Revenue decrease |
| Station buildings, operating profit effect | ¥400mn | Operating profit decrease |
| Station buildings, door and escalator repairs | ¥200mn | Special loss |
Train suspensions and reduced services under the earthquake cut rail passenger revenue, and the Shinkansen suffered viaduct damage and track deformation. On conventional lines, bridges and platforms were deformed and utility poles damaged. The rail passenger revenue forecast for the year was lowered to ¥174.4bn from ¥175.1bn.
The unresolved bill
The ¥9bn figure is not final. JR Kyushu is negotiating restoration policy and cost-sharing with the Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency over the facility damage excluding Kyushu Shinkansen rolling stock, and says the damage amount may change depending on the outcome. The interim earnings report adds that mid-work changes to scope, talks with the authorities and market conditions could materially affect the current and following fiscal years' results.
What the half-year already shows
For April to September, consolidated sales rose 3.7% to ¥246.46bn, a sixth straight rise, helped by property rental and hotels. Operating profit fell 11.3% to ¥36.27bn, and rail passenger revenue declined for the first time in six periods. Net profit fell 3.8% to ¥21.48bn.
The interim special-loss line includes an ¥8.83bn provision for expected post-period restoration costs and ¥167mn of disaster losses booked in the half. The year-earlier half carried an ¥8.70bn project-withdrawal loss, which the company says explains why net profit held up better than operating profit.
On the standalone basis, the company also lowered its net profit forecast to ¥31.6bn from ¥34.8bn, with operating profit trimmed by ¥1.0bn to ¥47.8bn.
Shareholders are unaffected for now: the full-year dividend plan stays at ¥121 per share, including a ¥60.50 interim payout, under a policy of at least a 35% consolidated payout ratio through the year to March 2028.