Tokyo Seimitsu raised its forecast for the year to March 2027 on 4 November, citing stronger semiconductor-equipment sales, and set out a phased plan to double output capacity for its wafer probers. The three things are separate: orders already booked, a modest guidance revision, and capacity that does not yet exist.
A small raise on a large base
The revised forecast puts sales at ¥192.0bn, up from the ¥189.0bn issued on 4 August, and operating profit at ¥45.0bn, up from ¥44.0bn. The company said it lifted the semiconductor-equipment sales forecast and raised each profit line accordingly. The percentages in the notice measure the change from the August forecast, not growth on last year. Against the prior year's operating profit of ¥33.74bn, the new guide is 33.4% higher.
| Measure | August forecast | Revised forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | ¥189.0bn | ¥192.0bn | +1.6% |
| Operating profit | ¥44.0bn | ¥45.0bn | +2.3% |
| Ordinary profit | ¥44.0bn | ¥45.5bn | +3.4% |
| Net profit attributable to owners of parent | ¥30.8bn | ¥32.0bn | +3.9% |
The company's chief executive said the sales and operating profit forecasts now sit at the level of the medium-term plan's quantitative targets, which the company expects to reach one year early. The full-year dividend forecast rose to ¥316 from ¥304, with the interim dividend set at ¥158. The company's stated policy targets a consolidated payout ratio of about 40% and keeps a ¥20 annual floor.
Orders carry the story
First-half orders were ¥138.96bn, up 72.3%, while sales rose 19.9% to ¥92.40bn and operating profit rose 38.2% to ¥20.34bn. In semiconductor equipment, orders reached ¥114.07bn, up 86.0%, which the company described as nearly double. It attributed the strength to probers for high-performance computing, including generative AI, and for high-bandwidth memory, along with Chinese customers expanding chip production.
The presentation adds that second-quarter semiconductor orders of ¥60.8bn came in nearly ¥20bn above the company's own expectation, partly because some projects planned for the second half arrived early. Management assumes second-half orders will be similar to the first half, which would bring full-year semiconductor orders to about ¥220bn, roughly 80% above the previous year. Pull-forward helps explain why a record quarter does not translate into a larger raise: the company said the second-half sales forecast is almost unchanged from August, and the first-half beat against plan is the main reason for the revision.
The capacity plan
Tokyo Seimitsu aims to double prober production capacity, measured in units, by around the middle of fiscal 2028, against the first half of the current fiscal year. It assumes the prober market will grow about 20% a year and expand until at least 2028. The steps:
- This fiscal year: a low-30s percentage increase from expanding space at the existing Hanno plant in Saitama, up from the 20% it indicated earlier.
- Next fiscal year: a further mid-20s percentage increase from the second phase of that expansion.
- Fiscal 2028: another mid-20s percentage increase once the first phase of a second Hanno plant is completed.
The presentation gives the increments as ranges, not exact figures, and it describes capacity in units, not revenue.
Constraints
The company says component procurement remains a risk and that future forecasts will take it into account. For hybrid-bonding grinders, which it had earlier said it expected orders for in the second half, the plan now includes booking for the evaluation units already shipped to customers, following discussions with those customers. The presentation is not audited, and the interim report is not subject to auditor review.