Japan received about 3.1 million foreign visitors in August, 9.6% fewer than a year earlier, according to figures the Japan Tourism Agency presented at its September 16 press conference. The July and August numbers are estimates, and July had still risen 0.1%. Arrivals for January to August totalled about 27.63 million, down 2.7%.
A weak month with record markets inside it
The agency said 14 of 23 countries and regions set August records. Italy and Spain set single-month records of any month. Eight markets fell year on year.
The agency gave its own reading of the declines, and cautioned that several factors were at work and no single cause could be assigned. It cited fewer flights from some countries compared with a year earlier, holidays falling on different dates, and higher airline fuel surcharges.
Inbound: earthquake effect judged limited
The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) questioned overseas travel agents in 22 priority markets on the effect of natural disasters. Agents in some countries and regions had adjusted tour itineraries that included Kumamoto prefecture after the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake. Social media and local media coverage had calmed compared with the days just after the quake, the agency said. On the heavy rain damage, it heard that no market was talking much about it in connection with travel to Japan.
The agency said the effect on inbound travel for Japan as a whole was, at present, probably limited. It said it would keep watching. That is the agency's assessment of the interviews, and its briefing did not link the August decline to the quake.
Domestic: cancellations concentrated in Kyushu
The damage the agency describes is domestic. Major travel companies told it that Kumamoto cancellations right after the quake reached five times the previous year's level, and that cancellations across Kyushu more than doubled. For Chiba and the Hokuriku region, hit by heavy rain last month, most companies reported temporary cancellations on the day of the disaster and the next day, but no major effect so far.
The Kyushu discount scheme
The agency's Kyushu Fukko Ouen-wari (Kyushu recovery support discount) applies to stays from October 1. Its stated aims are to counter reputational damage, restore lost demand and draw new demand. The agency has already allocated funds to the prefectures based on their cancellation levels, and each prefecture decides how to spend them. Sales through inns, hotels and travel agents are expected to begin in stages beyond booking sites.
The agency does not state a discount rate or a total budget. It said it had asked prefectures to warn travel and lodging operators against pre-loading the subsidy into prices. Where prices are clearly above a reasonable range, prefectures are to report to the national government and act strictly, including removing operators from the programme.
The agency also said it would first run the scheme and assess its effect. It said it might then consider other measures, such as inbound promotion or support for developing tourism content.