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Tokyo Brief東 京 ブ リ ー フJapan's day, wrapped and delivered by morning.
Issue 2026-11-12Nov 12, 2026

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Terumo's ¥3bn recall, ¥38bn question

Terumo's recall costs about ¥3bn of adjusted profit, yet its reported operating profit forecast falls 25.6%. Elsewhere: nonresidents net bought ¥11.35tn of Japanese securities in October, and ORIX's half-year leans on one-offs.

MARKETS

Market pulse

As of: November 12, 2026 JST
Nikkei 22560,819.36-0.7%
TOPIX3,937.33+0.2%
JPX Prime 150 Index1,641.41+0.1%
USD/JPY159.71+0.52%
10Y JGB yield2.84%+9.2 bps

Tokyo equities advanced while the 10Y JGB yield nudged higher.

Sourced from Nikkei, JPX, BOJ, MOF - values, not commentary.

TSE Prime investor flows

Net buying (+) / selling (−)

InvestorWeek ending
Foreign net flow−¥81.8bn
Individual net flow−¥443.5bn
Trust-bank net flow+¥225.6bn

Japan Exchange Group, investor-type weekly trading value (TSE Prime)

lead

Terumo's Recall Math

Medical device packages on a production line with one tray set aside, next to two bars of different heights representing a small adjusted profit effect and a larger reported profit effect.

Terumo cuts operating profit forecast 25.6% as Aortic recall brings ¥38bn asset-value risk

Terumo's Aortic recall costs about ¥3bn of adjusted operating profit, but about ¥38bn of asset-value risk, not yet final, drives a 25.6% cut to its reported operating profit forecast. Terumo now expects operating profit of ¥119.0bn for the year to March 2027, down from ¥160.0bn in the forecast it published on 8 October 2026. Adjusted operating profit slips only 1.1%, to ¥271.5bn from ¥274.5bn, and revenue is forecast at ¥1.2195tn, down 0.8%.

What changed: Terumo cited a voluntary recall and shipment halt of some products in its Aortic business, plus temporary supply constraints in its Neuro business. It puts the Aortic hit from lower sales and other factors at about ¥3bn of adjusted operating profit and gives no separate figure for Neuro.

The number: Reported operating profit takes the larger blow because Terumo has also factored in about ¥38bn for risks to the value of Aortic assets and similar items, based on the recall's possible effect on the business's future profitability. With the ¥3bn operating effect, the total impact is about ¥41bn, matching the ¥41.0bn cut. Profit attributable to owners of the parent is now forecast at ¥87.5bn, down 27.1% from ¥120.0bn.

The catch: The asset-value effect is not fixed. Terumo plans to review its business policy and plan for the Aortic business, then examine asset values in light of that review, and the notice gives no date for the review to finish.

What to watch: The gap between adjusted operating profit of ¥271.5bn and reported operating profit of ¥119.0bn. If the review changes the asset-value estimate, reported operating profit and net profit move with it; the ¥3bn adjusted effect is a separate, smaller item.

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Money and Rules

Abstract illustration of two unequal streams of securities flowing in opposite directions across a ledger grid

Nonresidents net bought ¥11.35tn of Japanese securities in October, MOF data show

Nonresidents net bought ¥11.35tn of Japanese securities in October, ¥7.86tn of it equities and investment fund shares, while Japanese residents net bought ¥1.95tn of foreign securities.

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Abstract illustration of ledger blocks, a signing key and bond certificates balanced on a scale, representing stablecoin and tokenisation oversight.

Japan's digital finance panel flags stablecoin redemption risk to government bond holdings

Members of an FSA study group said heavy redemptions at a large issuer of electronic payment instruments could force sales of the government bonds backing them, and asked whether current rules are sufficient.

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Profits With Footnotes

Editorial illustration of two stacks of ledger blocks, one beside a bank vault door and one beside semiconductor wafers, representing one-off sale and investment gains behind a company's profit.

ORIX's ¥856bn half-year profit leans on a bank sale and Toshiba-linked gains

ORIX's ¥856.2bn half-year net income rests on the ORIX Bank sale gain and Toshiba-related equity-method income in APAC, so the 35.8% annualised return on equity is a poor gauge of normal earnings.

What changed: Net income attributable to shareholders was ¥856.2bn for the six months to 30 September 2026, against ¥271.1bn a year earlier. Equity-method income reached ¥809.6bn, and APAC segment profit rose to ¥916.4bn from ¥125.7bn on Toshiba-related equity-method gains, including Kioxia share valuation gains taken in with a three-month lag, and a gain on the sale of SGK Holdings. An impairment on China Water Affairs partly offset them. The ORIX Bank sale, completed on 3 August, is reported as discontinued operations: ¥125.4bn before tax, including a ¥124.3bn gain on the sale, and ¥89.5bn after tax. Continuing operations contributed ¥766.7bn of attributable net income. The 35.8% return on equity, up from 12.7%, is calculated on net income that includes the bank gain.

What to watch: Some equity-method investees report on a three-month lag, and the half-year report expects the effect of share-price moves in the listed stocks they hold to show up in the third quarter.

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Fuel storage tanks and a tanker in front of a solar field and wind turbine, with one row of panels in shadow.

ENEOS's ¥706bn half-year profit leans on inventory gains as renewables take a ¥111.8bn hit

ENEOS reported operating profit of ¥706.1bn for April to September 2026, against ¥166.7bn a year earlier, but excluding inventory effects the figure is ¥443.8bn, up ¥170.3bn. Renewables took ¥111.8bn of impairments, and the $758mn TPC Holdings purchase closed.

What changed: The petroleum products segment earned ¥573.3bn, including a ¥262.3bn accounting gain from inventory against a ¥106.8bn loss a year earlier. Excluding that effect, segment profit was ¥311.0bn, up ¥137.3bn. The report credits wider export margins as overseas product prices rose on Middle East tensions. Operating cash flow was ¥326.3bn against ¥334.3bn, with the inventory build absorbing ¥540.1bn.

The catch: Renewables swung to an operating loss of ¥111.4bn from a ¥1.1bn profit. Of the ¥111.8bn of segment impairments, ¥85.5bn hit solar and wind units that carried goodwill, and group goodwill fell to ¥11.8bn from ¥74.2bn at the end of March. The report ties the charge to the pace of decarbonisation, higher development costs and rising interest rates.

What to watch: ENEOS completed the cash purchase of TPC Holdings, a North American C4 chemicals group, on 26 October US time, for an estimated $758mn. The report records the Chevron downstream purchase as an agreement signed on 14 May and gives no price or completion date. The board agreed on 23 October to buy 65% of NIPPO's parent holding company, a step still pending.

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DIC lifts operating-profit forecast to ¥100bn on AI-chip materials and price rises

DIC raised its forecast for the year to December 2026 on 12 November, lifting expected operating profit to ¥100bn from ¥78bn, up 28.2%, and sales to ¥1.18tn from ¥1.14tn. The prior year's operating profit was ¥52.2bn.

The move: DIC said strong AI semiconductor demand lifted epoxy resin and industrial tape shipments in Functional Products, and that Packaging & Graphics sold more higher-value jet and security inks. It also cited quick price responses to raw-material inflation and tighter cost control.

By the numbers: Over the nine months to 30 September, sales were ¥895.3bn, up 13.9%, and operating profit was ¥79.5bn, up 96.5%. Chemitronics, the unit that makes epoxy resins for package and printed-circuit boards, grew sales 24.2% to ¥58.0bn and operating profit to ¥12.1bn from ¥5.4bn.

The catch: Color & Display is the drag. DIC expects a fourth-quarter loss in the segment for seasonal reasons, and colour-filter pigment shipments slowed in the third quarter after a surge in television replacement demand ahead of the World Cup. The annual dividend forecast is unchanged at ¥150 a share.

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CHANGE Holdings now sees a possible full-year loss after a ¥5.97bn writedown and a donation-site shutdown

CHANGE Holdings now guides attributable profit for the year to March 2027 at between a ¥2.2bn loss and a ¥1.6bn profit, against ¥6.69bn to ¥7.31bn in its 14 May forecast, and has made the year-end dividend undetermined instead of ¥26 a share.

What changed: In the six months to September the group recognised a goodwill impairment on EG, a 53.2%-owned subsidiary that runs outsourced work such as social-media post monitoring. The parent's share is ¥5.97bn. Management says AI adoption changed EG's business environment, and describes the charge as non-cash with no direct effect on group cash flow.

What happened: The second hit sits in the second half. A third party gained unauthorised access to Furusato Choice, run by subsidiary Trust Bank, on 17 October, and the company has confirmed the leak of records for 4,454,097 members. The web version reopened on 6 November after 18 days and the app on 9 November. The top of the new range assumes donation volume 20% below what the company expected before the incident, and the bottom assumes 60% below.

What to watch: The company carries cyber insurance with a ¥2bn limit, and donation applications concentrate in October to December, so the second half is normally the larger revenue half. Operating profit is now guided at ¥0 to ¥6.0bn, down from ¥11.5bn to ¥12.5bn.

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Deals and Listings

A model passenger jet resting on a ledger divided into two equal halves, representing a 50-50 split in ownership of an aircraft lessor.

Tokyo Century completes sale of half its aircraft-leasing arm to Itochu for $1.946bn

Tokyo Century has sold 50% of SKY-U to Itochu for $1.946bn, deconsolidating Aviation Capital Group but keeping a 50% stake; the roughly ¥38bn profit effect is expected in the third quarter.

What changed: The transfer of 50.0% of the issued shares of TC Skyward Aviation U.S., Inc. (SKY-U) completed on 12 November 2026. SKY-U and its wholly owned subsidiary Aviation Capital Group LLC (ACG) have left Tokyo Century's consolidated subsidiaries and are now equity-method affiliates. Tokyo Century transferred 3,118 SKY-U shares and retains 3,118, also 50.0%.

Why it matters: The share counts differ from those announced on 3 August because SKY-U acquired treasury shares from Tokyo Century before the transfer, which changed both the pre-transfer holding and the number sold. Before the deal Tokyo Century held 6,236 SKY-U shares, a 100.0% voting stake.

What to watch: Tokyo Century expects the transfer to affect profit attributable to owners of the parent by about ¥38bn in the third quarter of the year ending March 2027. That is an expectation, not a booked figure. The company points to its 9 November release revising full-year forecasts and dividends for the guidance effect.

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Abstract diagram of several columns of share blocks funnelling into a single order-book column above a strip of date tick marks.

SmartNews holders plan to sell 8.1mn shares at an assumed ¥1,390 in December listing

SmartNews's planned 15 December Tokyo listing is a sale by existing shareholders: 8,081,500 shares offered by investors and the board chairman, valued at ¥11.23bn on an assumed price of ¥1,390 that will not be fixed until 7 December. The section for new-share offerings is marked not applicable.

Details: The chairman is the largest seller at 1,885,600 shares, ahead of Atomico III at 901,900, Globis Fund IV at 600,200 and MIXI at 435,600. A greenshoe of up to 1,212,200 shares, worth ¥1.68bn at the assumed price, is borrowed from the chairman. Existing holders and the company have agreed to a lockup until 12 June 2027, which the three joint lead managers can waive.

By the numbers: In the nine months to September 2026, revenue rose 11.9% to ¥28.05bn and operating profit reached ¥4.01bn, against a ¥1.09bn loss a year earlier. US revenue rose 41.3% to ¥8.21bn.

The catch: The filing discloses a Mississippi copyright suit from a media company over more than 2,000 articles, for which SmartNews has booked a provision of US$1.5mn but says a payout could exceed that, and an incident of unauthorised third-party access to parts of its systems whose scope is still under investigation.

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quick hits

Quick Hits

  • Amended Asian currency-swap pact adds a rapid-financing window for disaster and pandemic shocks

    The amended CMIM agreement, in force since 11 November 2026, adds a swap-based facility for urgent balance-of-payments needs from sudden shocks and lets precautionary drawings be renewed.

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  • Japan's draft sewer policy puts safety first and opens the door to smaller service areas

    Japan's land ministry is taking comment until 10 December on a draft sewerage policy that calls for risk-tiered inspections after the 2025 Yashio sinkhole, limits new lines and asks operators to price in future rebuilding costs.

    Read more
  • Japan's special-fraud losses reach ¥261bn in nine months, led by social-media investment scams

    Social-media investment scams cost victims ¥99.1bn in the nine months to September, while fake-police fraud, now counted as its own category, took ¥84.3bn from fewer cases than a year earlier.

    Read more
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    Noritz cut its operating profit forecast to ¥2.8bn from ¥4.5bn, blaming weak overseas housing demand tied to China's property slump, while leaving its domestic plan, net income forecast and ¥47 year-end dividend as they were.

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  • Blackstone-linked buyer wins ProjectHoldings tender at ¥2,200 a share, with 90.98% of votes

    TX1 will hold 90.98% of ProjectHoldings' voting rights when settlement starts on November 18, with SBI Holdings, the CEO and the DY fund all tendering; squeeze-out and delisting steps have yet to be announced.

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    Bushiroad lifted its full-year sales forecast by ¥13.0bn to ¥71.0bn after the Palworld card game outsold its own expectations, while quarterly operating profit fell 7.3% and advertising spending rose.

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    Micronics Japan lifted its operating profit forecast to ¥36.1bn and its year-end dividend forecast to ¥208, but said some third-quarter sales had been recognised early from the next quarter.

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