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The BOJ Spots a Crack in the AI Trade While Japan Inc. Cashes In
The Bank of Japan just added a new line to its worry list: a possible AI stock bust. Meanwhile DIC, Sumitomo Metal Mining and Sony Financial Group show why the boom still pays, for now.
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Market pulse
Tokyo equities advanced while the 10Y JGB yield nudged higher.
Sourced from Nikkei, JPX, BOJ, MOF - values, not commentary.
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The AI Trade's Two-Way Bet

Bank of Japan Adds AI Valuation Risk to Its List of Threats to Japan's Recovery
Bank of Japan policymakers who met on July 30 and 31 flagged a new risk to Japan's recovery: a reversal in AI profit expectations. The central bank's Summary of Opinions, released August 10, quotes one policy board member warning that 'the economy could deviate downward, should expectations regarding the future profitability of AI-related firms diminish and the stock market experience significant adjustments.'
What changed: The Summary of Opinions pairs that AI-valuation warning with the board's familiar watch list of oil prices and Middle East tensions, the two forces already pulling on Japan's inflation and growth outlook.
Why it matters: AI-driven wealth effects are helping lift consumer spending, according to the same document, so a reversal in AI-related equity valuations would cut against one of the few tailwinds propping up household demand.
What to watch: Whether the AI-valuation risk hardens into a named factor in the board's broader outlook or stays a single dissenting voice shows up in the minutes from the next policy meeting.
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Earnings Season's Winners

DIC's AI Chip Boom Fuels Record Interim Profit, Dividend Rise and Buyback
DIC's operating profit for the six months to June came in at ¥51.9bn, beating its own May guidance of ¥29.0bn by 79% and nearly doubling from a year earlier. Sales rose 13.3% to ¥593.0bn, also comfortably ahead of forecast.
The move: The Tokyo-listed maker of pigments, inks and specialty resins used the beat to raise its full-year outlook, lift its dividend to ¥150 a share and authorize a share buyback of up to ¥10bn.
Why it matters: Management credits AI chip demand and its own speed in repricing products for offsetting raw-material costs, one of the clearest examples this week of an old-economy manufacturer catching the same AI wave lifting semiconductor names.

Sumitomo Metal Mining Lifts Profit Outlook 55% on Copper, Gold and a Weaker Yen
Sumitomo Metal Mining told the Tokyo Stock Exchange on August 10 that it now expects ¥216.0bn in annual profit attributable to parent-company shareholders for the year to March 2027, up 55.4% from the ¥139.0bn it forecast in May.
The number: Management says the reset follows a review of first-quarter results, current non-ferrous metal prices and foreign-exchange trends, not a one-off gain or restatement.
The catch: The company's own price assumptions for the rest of the year are already more conservative than what it saw in the first quarter, when copper averaged $13,324 a tonne against $9,519 a year earlier.
Sony Financial Group Swings Full-Year Profit Forecast to ¥37bn From a Projected Loss
Sony Financial Group told the Tokyo Stock Exchange on August 10 that it now expects pretax profit of ¥37bn for the year to March 2027, reversing the ¥20bn pretax loss it had guided for as recently as May 14. Operating income moves from a projected ¥18bn loss to a ¥29bn profit, and profit attributable to owners of the parent swings from a projected ¥16bn loss to ¥23bn.
Why it matters: Smaller bond-sale losses at Sony Life and a stake sale still awaiting regulatory sign-off drove the swing, but the group's preferred earnings gauge stays fixed at ¥110bn because both factors are excluded from it. Operating revenue guidance rises a more modest 1.9%, to ¥1.07tn.
Lion's Operating Profit Rises 55% as Overseas Sales and a Chemical Exit Pay Off
Lion Corporation, the Tokyo-based maker of Clinica toothpaste and Top laundry detergent, told Japan's financial regulator that operating profit for the six months to June rose 54.7% from a year earlier to ¥20.7bn, on sales up 8.7% to ¥216.8bn.
The catch: A one-off ¥7bn gain from selling two chemical units drove more than half of that increase, not just stronger toothpaste and detergent sales. Overseas business profit rose 66.1% in the period.
Rakuten Group Posts First Pretax Profit in Seven Years
Rakuten Group's revenue for the six months to June rose 12.9% year-on-year to ¥1.31tn, and IFRS operating profit turned to ¥50.44bn from a ¥6.61bn loss a year earlier. Pretax profit reached ¥17.88bn, against a ¥66.25bn loss in the same period last year.
Why it matters: Fast growth outside the money-losing mobile business pushed pretax income positive. The company's preferred non-GAAP measure, which strips out one-off items and share-based pay, shows operating profit nearly quadrupling to ¥78.33bn.
The catch: The parent still posted a ¥10.9bn net loss for the period, a reminder that mobile's losses are narrowing, not gone.
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One-Off Gains and Ownership Moves

Sapporo's Property Exit Adds ¥315bn to Profit While Underlying Operations Slip Into a Loss
Sapporo Breweries, renamed from Sapporo Holdings on July 1, reported first-half net profit attributable to owners of ¥295.4bn, up ¥293.7bn from ¥1.8bn a year earlier.
The catch: Nearly all of that increase came from a single accounting event, the loss of control over its wholly owned property subsidiary after an investment vehicle backed by PAG Investment Management and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts completed the first of three planned share purchases on June 1. Continuing operations, stripped of the property gain, swung into a ¥5.9bn operating loss.

Toyo Tire Buys Out Mitsubishi's Entire 20% Stake in One Trade
Toyo Tire bought back 30,822,200 of its own shares, worth ¥111.02bn, in a single off-auction trade on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's ToSTNeT-3 system on August 10, retiring Mitsubishi Corporation as its top shareholder. The purchase equaled 20.01% of shares outstanding excluding treasury stock.
The number: The board had authorized a ceiling of 32,000,000 shares (20.78% of the stock) and up to ¥156.8bn three days earlier; the executed trade came in under that cap, and Toyo Tire has scheduled cancellation of the repurchased shares for late September.
Banks Waive Covenant Breach on Tsubaki Nakashima's ¥42.5bn Loan
Five banks holding a ¥42.5bn syndicated loan to Tsubaki Nakashima agreed on July 31 not to call in the debt, after the precision-ball and bearing-component maker breached the loan's financial covenants for the second consecutive half-year period.
The catch: The waiver matters more than the flattering headline in the company's first-half earnings, where operating profit rose 66.7% largely because of a one-off asset sale rather than a genuine recovery in the underlying business.
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Quick Hits
Kansai Electric's Ohi Unit 3 Reactor Shuts Down Automatically After Generator Alarm
Read moreA loss-of-field alarm tripped the generator at Kansai Electric's Ohi Unit 3 on August 8, forcing an automatic reactor shutdown that the utility says caused no radioactive release, with the cause still under investigation.
AI storm's auditor quits after four months, citing a used-truck sales probe
Read moreES Next quit as AI storm's statutory auditor after discovering pre-existing allegations tied to used-truck sales that predate its own appointment, and Frontier Audit Corporation, a firm AI storm had cycled through as recently as March, has returned as temporary auditor while a special committee investigates.
Niterra Books ¥15bn Charge to Exit US Auto-Parts Unit Wells
Read moreNiterra will absorb about ¥15bn in exit costs to unwind its 2015 purchase of Wells Vehicle Electronics, selling the Wisconsin repair-parts business to a new Omega Acquisition Corp subsidiary while a liquidation tax break is expected to add roughly ¥3bn to net profit.
GMO Internet Books a ¥10.1bn Order for Nvidia B300 Servers
Read moreGMO Internet's board approved a planned ¥10.1bn order for up to 64 Nvidia B300-equipped servers to expand its GPU cloud service, with deliveries starting sequentially from January 2027 and the earnings hit deferred past the current fiscal year.
Fan Communications Scraps Its Three-Year Targets as AI Search Bites the Ad Business
Read moreFan Communications cut its full-year profit forecast by 52% and scrapped its three-year plan, tracing the damage to generative-AI search tools that are cutting traffic to the affiliate sites carrying its ads.
Suruga Bank's Ordinary Profit More Than Triples on Reserve Reversals
Read moreSuruga Bank's quarterly net profit rose 158.5% to ¥14.1bn, helped by ¥8.2bn in credit-provision reversals and smaller bond losses, but the regional lender left its full-year profit and dividend guidance untouched.
Wel-Dish Probe Finds Ex-President's Cut-Rate Stock Option Exercise Invalid
Read moreAn independent probe into Wel-Dish. Incorporated found that its former president paid only ¥5 a share, not the disclosed ¥140, for 235,000 shares, and later ordered a subordinate to destroy the paperwork before his own committee hearing.
Memory-Chip Price Surge Pushes Shinden Hightex to Raise Profit and Dividend Forecasts
Read moreMemory-chip price gains and faster-than-planned new business growth lift the Tokyo-listed distributor's operating profit forecast 135%, and its board has revised the year-end dividend forecast to include a one-off ¥100 special payout on top of the unchanged base dividend.
Yokohama Rubber Lifts Dividend Payout Target to 30% After Blowing Past Its Own Guidance
Read moreYokohama Rubber's first-half net profit beat its own May forecast by 61%, and instead of just banking the upside, it raised its dividend payout ratio target from 20% to 30%, lifting the full-year dividend forecast to ¥223 per share for a sixth straight annual increase.
McDonald's Japan Sales Streak Hits a 43rd Straight Quarter
Read moreSix-month profit at McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) rose to ¥19.7bn as same-store sales grew for a 43rd straight quarter despite a February price revision, and management has revised its full-year forecast as a result.