Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. told the Tokyo Stock Exchange on August 10 that it now expects ¥216.0bn in annual profit attributable to parent-company shareholders for the year to March 2027, up 55.4% from the ¥139.0bn it forecast in May. The company's own explanation matters more than the round numbers: this is not a restatement or a one-off gain. Management says it reset the forecast after reviewing first-quarter results, current non-ferrous metal prices and foreign-exchange trends, and after revising production and sales plans across its resources, smelting and materials businesses.
| Metric | Year to March 2026 (actual) | Forecast, May 11 2026 | Forecast, August 10 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | ¥1.74tn | ¥1.88tn | ¥2.07tn |
| Pre-tax profit | ¥255.7bn | ¥229.0bn | ¥324.0bn |
| Net income | ¥188.7bn | ¥156.0bn | ¥237.0bn |
| Profit attributable to parent owners | ¥176.3bn | ¥139.0bn | ¥216.0bn |
| Basic earnings per share | ¥649.55 | ¥518.08 | ¥803.95 |
The mechanism shows up in the first-quarter numbers filed the same day. Quarterly revenue rose 42.3% year-on-year to ¥540.1bn and profit attributable to parent owners rose 220.5% to ¥87.9bn, driven by average copper prices of $13,324 a tonne (versus $9,519 a year earlier), gold at $4,516.4 a troy ounce (versus $3,280.3) and a yen that averaged ¥159.50 to the dollar (versus ¥144.60). Sumitomo attributes the copper gain to supply disruptions at overseas mines and heavy data-centre infrastructure demand, and the nickel gain to Indonesian mining-quota cuts and a sulphur shortage tied to Middle East tension that curbed nickel output.
Segment guidance for the full year shows where the extra profit lands. The resources segment's profit target rose to ¥256.0bn from ¥196.0bn, smelting to ¥63.0bn from ¥24.0bn, and materials to ¥18.0bn from ¥4.0bn, with battery-material sales described as steady and electronic-component materials lifted by AI data-centre demand.
| Item | Q1 actual, Apr-Jun 2026 | Q2-Q4 forecast | Full-year forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | $13,324/t | $12,500/t | $12,706/t |
| Nickel | $8.24/lb | $7.50/lb | $7.68/lb |
| Gold | $4,516.4/toz | $4,100.0/toz | $4,204.1/toz |
| Yen per dollar | ¥159.50 | ¥160.00 | ¥159.87 |
The revised guidance does not simply extend the first-quarter run rate. Sumitomo's assumptions for the remaining three quarters are more conservative than what it actually saw between April and June: copper at $12,500 a tonne against a $13,324 first-quarter average, gold at $4,100.0 against $4,516.4, and the yen a touch weaker at ¥160.00 against ¥159.50. That gap cuts both ways for investors. If copper and gold prices hold near first-quarter levels for the rest of the year, full-year results could beat the new targets; if Indonesian nickel-quota policy eases or the yen strengthens, the reset guidance is exposed the same way the May forecast was. One thing the revision did not touch: Sumitomo's dividend forecast stays at ¥207.00 a share for the year, below the ¥228.00 actually paid for the year to March 2026.