Japan Exchange Group, the operator of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, raised its full-year earnings forecast for the year ending March 2027, lifting projected profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥105.0bn from ¥98.5bn and raising its dividend forecast to ¥82.00 a share from ¥77.00. The revision, disclosed on September 24, 2026, updates guidance the group issued on July 28, 2026 alongside its first-quarter results.
| Metric | Previous Forecast | Revised Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating revenue | ¥241.5bn | ¥252.5bn | +4.6% |
| Operating profit | ¥145.5bn | ¥154.5bn | +6.2% |
| Profit before tax | ¥147.0bn | ¥156.5bn | +6.5% |
| Profit attributable to owners of parent | ¥98.5bn | ¥105.0bn | +6.6% |
| Basic earnings per share | ¥96.53 | ¥102.90 | - |
JPX attributed the revision to updated assumptions about full-year average daily trading value and volume across the markets it runs. It now expects average daily trading value in stocks and other securities across the Prime, Standard and Growth markets, TOKYO PRO Market, and ETFs, ETNs and REITs to reach ¥11tn a day, ¥800bn higher than assumed in July. It also raised its assumption for long-term Japanese government bond futures volume to 52,000 units a day (up 1,000), TOPIX futures to 88,000 units a day (up 1,000), and Nikkei 225 stock price index options to ¥38.5bn a day (up ¥8.5bn). The one assumption cut was Nikkei 225 futures volume, trimmed to 133,000 units a day, 3,000 fewer than the July forecast.
The higher profit outlook feeds directly into the dividend math. JPX said it targets a payout ratio of 60% or more of profit attributable to owners of parent, while weighing the financial soundness needed as a clearinghouse operator and investment opportunities to strengthen its markets' competitiveness. Under the revised forecast, the annual dividend rises to ¥82.00 a share, split evenly between a ¥41.00 interim payment and a ¥41.00 year-end payment, up from the ¥38.00-and-¥39.00 split projected in July. That compares with an actual payout of ¥61.00 a share for the year ended March 2026.
Against last year's results, the new guidance implies a step up in scale: operating revenue for the year ended March 2026 came to ¥198.7bn and profit attributable to owners of parent was ¥79.1bn, with basic earnings per share of ¥76.81, against the ¥102.90 now projected for the year ending March 2027. JPX said the figures are forward-looking estimates based on information and assumptions it currently judges reasonable, and that actual results may differ materially.