Shiseido raised its forecast for the year ending December 2026 on 10 November, but the upgrade does not rest on stronger demand. The company expects core operating profit of ¥87bn, up from ¥69bn in its previous forecast, and it cut its outlook for sales growth in four of its five regions on its own underlying measure.
A bigger forecast on weaker underlying sales
The forecast for sales is ¥1.025tn, against ¥990bn before. Shiseido attributes the increase to yen-driven translation effects. Its measure of real sales growth strips out currency and business-transfer effects. On that basis the company now expects sales to come in below its previous forecast, citing softer trends in Japan, Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific. Its slides put full-year real sales growth at 1%, compared with 3% before, and reported growth at 6%.
The yen assumptions moved to dollar ¥158, euro ¥182 and Chinese yuan ¥23.0, from ¥150, ¥170 and ¥20.5.
| Measure | Prior forecast | Revised forecast | Stated change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | ¥990bn | ¥1.025tn | +3.5% |
| Core operating profit | ¥69bn | ¥87bn | +26.1% |
| Operating profit | ¥59bn | ¥87bn | +47.5% |
| Net profit | ¥42bn | ¥62bn | +47.6% |
Where the extra profit comes from
Shiseido says the real sales shortfall reduces gross profit. Offsetting that are companywide cost management, currency effects and one-off factors including tariff refunds, which together lift core operating profit above the previous forecast. The release gives no amount for the tariff refunds or for the currency effect. Core operating profit excludes restructuring costs, impairment losses, acquisition-related costs and similar non-recurring items. IFRS operating profit is therefore a separate line.
That line is forecast at ¥87bn, up from ¥59bn, and profit attributable to owners of the parent at ¥62bn, up from ¥42bn. Shiseido credits stronger earnings power and bringing forward asset-light measures. The slides add that the new forecast includes extra asset-sale gains, and that non-recurring items now net to zero, compared with a ¥10bn loss in the earlier forecast. For the year to December 2025, core operating profit was ¥44.52bn and the operating result was a ¥28.788bn loss.
Nine months: profit recovery, flat underlying sales
In the nine months to 30 September, sales rose 6.8% to ¥741.1bn. Excluding currency the rise was 0.2%, and on the real measure 0.7%. Core operating profit more than doubled to ¥67.5bn from ¥30.1bn. Operating profit was ¥63.5bn, against a ¥33.4bn loss a year earlier, and profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥44.4bn, against a ¥44.0bn loss. The prior-year loss included a ¥46.8bn goodwill impairment.
Shiseido's slides show real sales growth of minus 3% in the first quarter, 2% in the second and 3% in the third. They pencil in 2% for the fourth.
What management says it still needs
In the guidance release, Shiseido says restructuring and cost management have strengthened its earnings base. It also says that accelerating sales growth and sustaining profit improvement remain the key tasks. The annual dividend forecast is unchanged at ¥60: an interim ¥30 already paid and a ¥30 year-end payment.