Shimano raised its forecast for the year to December 2026 on Tuesday, but the sharpest number in its third-quarter report, a 148.5% jump in nine-month net profit, says more about last year's weak base than about demand. The bicycle-component and fishing-tackle maker now expects operating profit of ¥54.3bn, up from a ¥47.0bn forecast and 5.1% above last year's result.
What the guidance change rests on
Shimano's kessan tanshin (earnings summary) says the sales and operating profit revisions reflect two things: higher demand as market inventory adjustment progresses in Europe, China and elsewhere, and improved profit from currency effects, mainly the weakness of Asian currencies. Sales guidance rises only modestly, to ¥495.5bn from ¥491.0bn. The operating profit change is larger, a 15.5% increase on the previous forecast.
Ordinary profit and net profit forecasts also went up, to ¥62.3bn and ¥47.0bn. Shimano ties those changes to higher non-operating expenses, including foreign-exchange valuation losses, booked in the third quarter.
| Measure | Previous forecast | Revised forecast | 2025 actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | ¥491.0bn | ¥495.5bn | ¥466.2bn |
| Operating profit | ¥47.0bn | ¥54.3bn | ¥51.7bn |
| Ordinary profit | ¥56.0bn | ¥62.3bn | ¥47.0bn |
| Net profit attributable to owners of parent | ¥43.0bn | ¥47.0bn | ¥34.0bn |
Nine months: operations improved, the base did the rest
For January to September, sales were ¥375.2bn (up 6.9%) and operating profit was ¥44.5bn (up 21.8%). Ordinary profit rose 71.5% to ¥51.9bn, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent rose to ¥40.0bn from ¥16.1bn.
The comparison period was poor. In the same nine months of 2025, ordinary profit had fallen 48.1% and net profit 61.0%. Foreign-exchange losses were ¥18.4bn then and ¥1.7bn this time, while interest income fell to ¥9.5bn from ¥12.9bn. This year's net profit also includes a ¥3.1bn gain from selling two listed shareholdings and ¥1.1bn of factory-rebuild costs. Operating profit, up 21.8%, is the cleaner read of the business.
Bicycles steady, fishing faster
Bicycle components, the larger segment, posted sales of ¥278.4bn (up 4.6%) and operating profit of ¥33.4bn (up 10.9%). Shimano describes retail sales of complete bikes as generally resilient and market inventory adjustment as advancing. Europe was firm, with inventory improving in Germany, a major market. North America stayed weak on tariff-related high bike prices, though inventory there was at an appropriate level. In China, inventory that had been slightly high was being worked down, while road-bike demand stayed weak. Retail sales in Japan were soft.
Fishing tackle grew faster: sales of ¥96.6bn (up 14.4%) and operating profit of ¥11.1bn (up 72.9%). Shimano cites firm sales in North America and Australia and a recovery in Japan despite poor weather and heat. Inventory in Europe was slightly high.
Share count and dividend
Shimano bought 2,368,900 of its own shares between 12 February and 30 September, lifting treasury stock by ¥41.4bn. Average shares outstanding for the period were 85.3mn against 87.9mn a year earlier, and earnings per share were ¥469.12 against ¥183.16. The dividend forecast is unchanged at ¥363.00 for the year.
Shimano's forecasts rest on information available now and on assumptions about uncertain factors, and it warns that actual results may differ. The report is not reviewed by an auditor.