Japan's economy expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2026, an annualized rate of 1.9%, according to the second preliminary GDP estimate released September 8, 2026 by the Cabinet Office's Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
The headline number masks an uneven mix underneath. Private consumption rose 0.4% and residential investment climbed 0.9%, both modest gains. Business investment, the line companies and economists watch for signs of corporate confidence, fell 1% in the quarter. Private inventories subtracted a further 0.1 percentage point from growth.
| Component | Change |
|---|---|
| Real GDP | +0.5% (annualized +1.9%) |
| Private consumption | +0.4% |
| Residential investment | +0.9% |
| Business investment | -1% |
| Government consumption | +0.4% |
| Public investment | +1.4% |
| Private inventories (contribution) | -0.1pt |
| Net exports (contribution) | +0.3pt |
| Exports | +1.7% |
| Imports | +0.3% |
Public spending added a smaller, steadier push: government consumption rose 0.4% and public investment rose 1.4%, each contributing 0.1 percentage point to the quarter's growth.
The biggest single contributor was trade. Net exports added 0.3 percentage point to growth, with exports up 1.7% against a 0.3% rise in imports. That split, strong exports and consumption against a contraction in business investment, is a different growth story than broad-based expansion, and it is the one that matters for anyone forecasting corporate capital spending in Japan over the coming quarters.
This is the second of two preliminary readings ESRI publishes for each quarter, and the institute notes that both nominal and real seasonally adjusted series are recalculated with every release as source statistics are updated. Readers comparing this figure against the first preliminary estimate published in August should treat any change as provisional pending further data revisions; the packet reviewed here does not include a clean, corroborated readout of that earlier number, so no comparison is drawn.