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Solar output cuts and a poor June leave a Tokyo-listed infrastructure fund below its own forecast

A Tokyo-listed solar infrastructure fund reported six-month results below its own forecast, citing curtailment in Tohoku, Kyushu and Tokyo Electric's area plus poor June weather, and set a distribution of ¥1,471 per unit.

Ground-mounted solar panels beside a substation and power lines, with some panel rows shaded grey to suggest curtailed output under an overcast sky.

A Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed solar infrastructure fund says its results for the six months to June 2026 fell short of its initial forecast. Its annual securities report names three causes: the first output curtailment ordered for solar plants in Tokyo Electric's service area, more curtailment than expected mainly in the Tohoku and Kyushu regions, and unsettled weather in June.

The numbers

Operating revenue was ¥1.201bn, operating profit ¥337mn, ordinary profit ¥234mn and net profit ¥233mn. The previous six months, to December 2025, produced ¥1.272bn, ¥414mn, ¥310mn and ¥291mn. The fund set a distribution of ¥1,471 per unit (¥1,303 from profit and ¥168 as a return of capital), against ¥1,800 for the prior period. The filing does not state the forecast figures the fund missed.

Where the cuts landed

The fund reports curtailment days per plant for January to June 2026. The Ashikita plant in Kumamoto was curtailed on 104 days and the Miyako plant in Iwate on 55, and both fall under the "designated" rule, which allows unlimited uncompensated curtailment. The Otsu plant had 43 days, Kirishima 40 and Yabuki 23. Kirishima and Yabuki together made up about 38.7% of minimum guaranteed rent in the period.

How the rent structure responds

Each plant's rent combines a minimum guaranteed amount, based on a conservative P90 output forecast and backed by sunshine insurance, with performance-linked rent. Curtailment compensation paid by the grid operator counts toward actual sales revenue. For plants with past curtailment, the minimum rent is already reduced for expected losses. Insurance for curtailment is decided plant by plant.

The filing does not split the shortfall between curtailment and weather, so the miss should not be read as curtailment alone. It also expects priority curtailment of FIT-supported solar plants nationwide from the year starting April 2027, and every plant the fund owns is under the FIT scheme.