RACCOON Holdings, the Tokyo Prime-listed operator of the wholesale platform Super Delivery and the trade-credit finance units Paid and URIHO, told investors on July 27 that its board had reviewed the gap between its returns and its share price and approved an updated plan to close it. The company says the timing is tied to a business alliance with Advantage Partners, which is prompting a revision of its medium-term plan, and it used the moment to publish a fresh self-assessment of where its valuation stands.
The gap is stark. Return on equity was 18.7% and return on invested capital 14.4% in the fiscal year ended April 2026, well above the 8% cost of equity RACCOON now assumes and the 6.6% weighted average cost of capital it calculates. Despite that spread, market capitalization has fallen roughly 82%, from ¥71.6bn at the end of the fiscal year ended April 2021 to ¥13.0bn at the end of the fiscal year ended April 2026. Price-to-book has slid from 13.5x to 3.1x over the same stretch, and price-to-earnings has fallen from 87.0x to 16.1x.
Part of the story is that RACCOON has stopped trusting its own textbook math. Its measured stock beta has become what the company calls an abnormal 0.22, producing a theoretical CAPM cost of equity of just 3.95% (a 2.52% risk-free rate plus that beta times a 6.45% market risk premium). Management judged that figure too low to serve as an investment hurdle and instead set its own 8% assumption, cross-checked against a CAPM estimate using a normalized five-year average beta of 0.87 (about 8.1%), the inverse of its price-earnings ratio (6.2%), a residual-income model (about 8.1%), and the 7-8% floor global investors have applied to Japanese equities since the Ito Review.
The medium-term plan for the three fiscal years ending April 2027 through April 2029 targets revenue of ¥10.3bn and adjusted EBITDA of ¥2.45bn, a 23.8% margin, alongside a 25.0% ROE, up from ¥6.57bn in revenue, ¥1.59bn in adjusted EBITDA and 18.7% ROE in the year just ended. A longer 2031 vision adds a ¥50.0bn market capitalization target on ¥13.5bn of sales and ¥4.4bn of adjusted EBITDA.
| Metric | Year ended April 2026 | Medium-term target (year ending April 2029) | 2031 vision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | ¥6.57bn | ¥10.3bn | ¥13.5bn |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ¥1.59bn (24.2% margin) | ¥2.45bn (23.8% margin) | ¥4.4bn |
| Return on equity | 18.7% | 25.0% | Not set in this disclosure |
| Market capitalization | ¥13.0bn | Not set in this disclosure | ¥50.0bn |
Getting there means a rough year first. Operating margin is projected to fall from 20.1% in the fiscal year ended April 2026 to 8.0% in the following fiscal year ending April 2027 as the company front-loads spending, before recovering to about 19.4% by the medium-term plan's final year, with ROE dipping to 7.2% next year before climbing back toward the 25.0% target. RACCOON says the spending is backed by a February-to-March 2026 test that lifted ad-driven new registrations 33.4% at Super Delivery, the number of deals reaching negotiation 50.0% at Paid, and enrollments 26.3% at URIHO.
On capital allocation, the three-year growth-investment budget totals about ¥5.0bn, including ¥3.0bn earmarked for mergers, acquisitions and startup investment, ¥1.4bn for marketing, ¥0.2bn for BtoB-network infrastructure and ¥0.4bn for people and systems. Cash on hand stood at ¥5.7bn against the company's own ¥3.0bn-to-¥4.0bn "appropriate" range, with a further ¥7.95bn in undrawn overdraft and commitment lines available. Surplus cash, plus a target dividend payout ratio of 45-50% layered with progressive and profit-linked add-ons and flexible share buybacks, is where the company says money goes if the growth bets don't need it.
RACCOON's own diagnosis is unusually candid: its "RACCOON BtoB Network" concept and the 2031 market-cap vision have not reached investors, and a profit dip less than two years into the prior mid-term plan has raised doubts about growth durability. Its fix is less about new numbers than new communication, an annual update of this document, expanded English-language disclosure, and twice-yearly board reporting on investor feedback.