Otsuka Holdings has scrapped the earnings forecast it issued in February, telling investors on July 28 that profit for the six months through June 2026 will land far above that guidance, largely because rival generic drugmakers were slower to enter two of its overseas markets than the company had expected.
The pharmaceutical and consumer-products group now projects revenue of ¥1.332tn for the half, up 9.4% from the ¥1.218tn it forecast in February. Business profit is now guided at ¥280bn, a 61.8% increase from the earlier ¥173bn estimate, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent rises to ¥215bn, 68% above the original ¥128bn target. Basic earnings per share climb to ¥407.90 from a prior ¥243.07.
| Metric | Previous forecast (Feb 13) | Revised forecast (Jul 28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥1.218tn | ¥1.332tn | +9.4% |
| Business profit | ¥173bn | ¥280bn | +61.8% |
| Operating profit | ¥175bn | ¥278bn | +58.9% |
| Pre-tax interim profit | ¥172bn | ¥285bn | +65.7% |
| Interim profit | ¥131bn | ¥218bn | +66.4% |
| Net profit attributable to owners | ¥128bn | ¥215bn | +68.0% |
| Basic EPS (yen) | ¥243.07 | ¥407.90 | not disclosed |
Otsuka's own explanation points to favorable timing rather than any shift in underlying demand. Generic competition for one of its drugs sold in the United States and another sold in Europe arrived later than the company had modeled, extending the period each could sell without a direct copycat rival. Alongside that delay, the company cites strong sales of an anti-APRIL antibody, an antipsychotic medicine, and a cancer treatment in its portfolio, plus a currency boost from a weaker yen against the dollar and the euro.
On costs, Otsuka says research and development spending came in under plan. The company halted development on some indications for a schizophrenia drug candidate and separately shifted the timing of spending on other development projects, both of which trimmed the R&D bill for the half.
The company frames this as an interim marker, not a settled result. Full-year guidance for the year to December 2026 will not arrive until Otsuka's scheduled earnings release on July 31, three days after this revision. That gap matters: the tailwinds behind the beat, a temporary absence of generic rivals, a weaker yen, and R&D timing shifts, are not guaranteed to persist. Generic entrants could still arrive in the second half, and currency moves can reverse quickly.
For context, Otsuka's actual results for the same six months a year earlier, January through June 2025, showed revenue of about ¥1.181tn and net profit attributable to owners of roughly ¥173.5bn. The new forecast implies growth well beyond what the company itself expected as recently as February.