Nippon Steel raised its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027, now projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of ¥290bn, up 32% from the ¥220bn it had forecast in May. The company also lifted its business-profit target by ¥100bn to ¥630bn and nudged revenue guidance up to ¥11.2tn from ¥11.0tn.
| Metric | Previous forecast (May 13) | Revised forecast (Aug 4) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥11.0tn | ¥11.2tn | +1.8% |
| Business profit | ¥530bn | ¥630bn | +18.9% |
| Net profit (parent) | ¥220bn | ¥290bn | +31.8% |
| Per-share profit forecast | ¥42.00 | ¥55.00 | n/a |
Management named the same forces cutting into results at home and boosting them abroad. Rising raw-material and fuel costs, plus falling steel exports to the Middle East, have squeezed the domestic business. Offsetting that: higher steel prices in the United States, a profit turnaround at United States Steel, and wider gains from revaluing inventory.
The April-to-June quarter showed the pattern already in motion. Revenue rose 40.4% year-on-year to ¥2.82tn and business profit rose 58.1% to ¥145.5bn. Net profit came to ¥75.3bn, a sharp turn from a ¥195.8bn loss in the same quarter last year, when Nippon Steel booked a ¥231.6bn restructuring charge tied to transferring its stake in the AM/NS Calvert joint venture.
Supplementary materials released alongside the results show the domestic-overseas split behind the headline numbers. Nippon Steel cut its underlying domestic business-profit outlook by ¥90bn to ¥380bn, pointing to the cost pressures. It raised the underlying overseas outlook by ¥90bn to ¥320bn, with United States Steel now expected to contribute ¥180bn or more, up ¥80bn from the prior guidance. Management called the US subsidiary the group's biggest earner this year. It also said 2026 synergy gains at United States Steel, from operational improvements, are expected to reach $300mn a year, aided by the restart of a blast furnace at the Granite City plant in Illinois.
The annual dividend forecast is unchanged at ¥24 per share, split evenly between a ¥12 interim payment and a ¥12 final payment. First-half guidance for the six months to September rose in step: net profit is now expected at ¥120bn, up ¥30bn from the prior forecast, with business profit up ¥40bn to ¥260bn. The gap between a costlier home market and a stronger American subsidiary is now built into the numbers management is asking investors to hold it to.