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JM Holdings cuts profit forecast 30% even as sales beat plan

JM Holdings now expects ¥198.5bn in sales for the year to July 2026, but a ¥1.04bn store impairment and cautious price increases on rising food costs cut its net profit forecast to ¥4.9bn, down 30% from the original guide.

Sep 3, 20262 min readJM HOLDINGS CO.,LTD.3539
Illustration of a supermarket aisle with stocked shelves, price tags and a worker checking a delivery clipboard, evoking cost pressure in food retail.

JM Holdings, the Tokyo-listed supermarket and food-service operator, is selling more than it planned and earning less. The company's board, meeting on September 3, 2026, approved a downward revision to the earnings forecast it first published in September 2025, alongside a new ¥1.04bn store impairment charge.

Sales are running ahead of plan. Management now expects consolidated net sales of ¥198.5bn for the year to July 2026, up from a ¥196.0bn forecast made a year earlier, a 1.3% increase driven by steady existing-store sales in the supermarket and food-service businesses plus contributions from four new store openings. Profit is moving the other way. Operating income is now guided at ¥9.0bn, down 17.4% from the ¥10.9bn originally forecast. Ordinary income falls to ¥9.1bn, a 17.3% cut from the earlier ¥11.0bn estimate. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent drops hardest, down 30.0% to ¥4.9bn from ¥7.0bn, taking earnings per share from a projected ¥137.37 to ¥96.16.

JM Holdings: forecast revision for the year to July 2026
Figures are consolidated. Yen amounts rounded for readability; percentage changes and prior-year actuals as disclosed. EPS restated for the 2-for-1 stock split effective November 1, 2025.
MetricPrevious forecast (Sept 2025)Revised forecastChange vs previousPrior year actual (to July 2025)
Net sales¥196.0bn¥198.5bn+¥2.5bn (+1.3%)¥186.2bn
Operating income¥10.9bn¥9.0bn-¥1.9bn (-17.4%)¥10.0bn
Ordinary income¥11.0bn¥9.1bn-¥1.9bn (-17.3%)¥10.1bn
Net profit attributable to owners¥7.0bn¥4.9bn-¥2.1bn (-30.0%)¥6.5bn
EPS (yen)¥137.37¥96.16¥126.02

Two separate pressures are doing the damage, and the company is careful to keep them apart. The operating-line cut comes from margin, not the writedown: food procurement costs are rising, and management says it is raising retail prices "carefully, over time," while watching competitors and industry trends rather than passing costs through quickly. That caution keeps the company competitive on price, but gross profit margin is set to fall versus the year to July 2025 as a result.

The net-profit cut carries an extra layer. JM Holdings will book a special loss of ¥1.04bn for store impairment because some stores run by a consolidated subsidiary showed declining profitability. That charge sits below the operating line, which is why net profit falls further, proportionally, than operating or ordinary income.

For context, the year to July 2025 delivered net sales of ¥186.2bn, operating income of ¥10.0bn, ordinary income of ¥10.1bn, and net profit of ¥6.5bn, against EPS of ¥126.02, restated for a 2-for-1 stock split effective November 1, 2025. JM Holdings notes the guidance rests on information "currently available" and reasonable assumptions, not a promise of achievement, and actual results may differ. The company will publish its formal results for the year, the kessan tanshin, on September 11, 2026.