Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (JAPEX) raised its full-year profit forecast on August 6, even as it reported a rough first quarter. Net profit attributable to owners fell 79.4% to ¥3.24bn on sales of ¥65.1bn, down 21.4% from a year earlier. Operating profit dropped 62.9% to ¥6.2bn and ordinary profit fell 72.3% to ¥5.8bn.
Management pointed to lower crude sales volumes, higher exploration spending, and a jump in LNG procurement costs after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced the company to buy spot cargoes from other regions instead of the Gulf supplies it had planned to draw on.
Despite that, JAPEX lifted its outlook for the year to March 2027, raising forecast revenue to ¥314.0bn from ¥303.0bn, operating profit to ¥46.0bn from ¥41.0bn, ordinary profit to ¥46.0bn from ¥45.0bn, and net profit to ¥65.0bn from ¥60.0bn.
| Metric | Previous forecast (May 13) | Revised forecast (Aug 6) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥303.0bn | ¥314.0bn | +¥11.0bn (+3.6%) |
| Operating profit | ¥41.0bn | ¥46.0bn | +¥5.0bn (+12.2%) |
| Ordinary profit | ¥45.0bn | ¥46.0bn | +¥1.0bn (+2.2%) |
| Net profit attributable to owners | ¥60.0bn | ¥65.0bn | +¥5.0bn (+8.3%) |
| Earnings per share | ¥234.38 | ¥253.91 | +¥19.53 |
Revenue and operating profit gain from higher assumed crude selling prices and volumes, JAPEX said. Its crude price assumption for the second half of the fiscal year is $70 a barrel, well below the $94.86 actually realised in the April-June quarter, and its exchange-rate assumption steps down to ¥150 per dollar from an actual ¥158.01, leaving room for another revision if either figure holds closer to current levels.
Net profit gets an additional lift from a source unrelated to drilling. JAPEX's board resolved on the same day to sell one listed equity holding, expecting a roughly ¥6.0bn extraordinary gain in the quarter to September, with proceeds earmarked for growth investment. That gain is already built into the revised net profit figure.
Separately, JAPEX is expanding in the United States. Through its sub-subsidiary Peoria Resources Acquisition Company, the firm agreed to buy four tight oil and gas entities collectively known as Fundare for about $320mn, funded from Peoria's own cash and reserve-based lending. The assets, in Colorado's Denver-Julesburg basin and Wyoming's Green River basin, produced roughly 9,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day, net, in the first quarter of 2026, and sit next to the Verdad acreage JAPEX bought in February. The deal, expected to close in the quarter to December 2026, will add just over ¥1bn to operating profit this fiscal year and about ¥15bn annually from the year to March 2028. Its near-term earnings effect is minor next to the guidance revision itself.
JAPEX left its dividend forecast untouched, at ¥45.00 a share for the year, split into an interim payment of ¥22.50 and a year-end payment of ¥22.50, with a floor of ¥40.00 regardless of how earnings move. The company's basic policy targets a consolidated payout ratio of 30% of net profit.