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Daiwa House Raises Profit Guidance 17% and Lifts Dividend Ahead of Share Split

Japan's biggest homebuilder now expects ¥266bn in net profit for the year to March 2027, a 17% upgrade from its May forecast, and will raise its dividend to a pre-split ¥178 a share before an October 2-for-1 split, even as last year's one-off pension gain makes the bottom line look smaller on paper.

A construction crane lifts prefabricated housing panels at a residential development site with a logistics warehouse and rooftop solar panels in the background.

Daiwa House Industry, Japan's largest homebuilder by revenue, told the Tokyo Stock Exchange on August 6 that it now expects consolidated net profit of ¥266bn for the year to March 2027, a 17.2% increase from the ¥227bn it forecast in May. The company raised every line of its full-year guidance: sales to ¥5.9tn from ¥5.8tn, operating profit to ¥460bn from ¥400bn, and ordinary profit to ¥402bn from ¥342bn.

Full-Year Guidance: Before and After the August Revision
Prior-year actual profit included a one-off ¥115.7bn reduction in retirement-benefit expense; excluding that item, the comparable operating-profit change implied by the new forecast is a 7.9% decline, not the 25.2% decline shown on an unadjusted basis.
MetricPrevious Forecast (May 2026)Revised Forecast (Aug 2026)Prior Year Actual (to March 2026)
Net sales¥5.8tn¥5.9tn¥5.58tn
Operating profit¥400bn¥460bn¥614.9bn
Ordinary profit¥342bn¥402bn¥572.0bn
Net profit attributable to owners¥227bn¥266bn¥350.6bn

Management credited a strong first quarter and steady progress on projects already under way. It added a caveat: uncertainty around overseas operations and the situation in the Middle East remains, and the new forecast is built to absorb that risk rather than ignore it.

The upgrade looks smaller once last year's numbers are put in context. Prior-year operating profit of ¥614.9bn included a one-off ¥115.7bn reduction in retirement-benefit expense from an actuarial adjustment. Strip that out, and comparable prior-year operating profit was ¥499.2bn, ordinary profit ¥456.3bn and net profit ¥271.4bn. Measured against that adjusted base, the new guidance still implies a 7.9% drop in operating profit and a 2.0% drop in net profit, even after the upward revision.

Daiwa House also raised its annual dividend target by ¥2 to ¥178 a share, on a pre-split basis, from the ¥176 it targeted in May. That comparison needs a footnote: the company is carrying out a 2-for-1 stock split with a record date of September 30, 2026, so the interim dividend of ¥86 was set on the pre-split share count while the year-end payment of ¥46 is stated on the post-split count. Converted back to a pre-split basis, that year-end payment equals ¥92, giving the ¥178 full-year total the company is advertising. Per-share profit guidance follows the same logic: the ¥214.74 forecast already reflects the split, and the unadjusted figure would be ¥429.48.

The first-quarter results behind the upgrade showed uneven demand. Revenue rose 9.0% year on year to ¥1.408tn and net profit attributable to owners rose 9.1% to ¥83.2bn. Business-facilities work, covering logistics and industrial property, grew fastest, with segment operating profit up 13.5% to ¥54.4bn, while the condominium segment's operating profit fell 46.5% to ¥1.9bn as fewer units were handed over to buyers. Total assets grew to ¥8.616tn from ¥8.412tn at the previous fiscal year-end, mostly because inventories of property for sale increased; the company financed that build-up with more short-term borrowing and commercial paper, pushing interest-bearing debt to ¥3.464tn and its debt-to-equity ratio to 1.19 times, or 1.10 times counting hybrid financing as part capital.