QPS Holdings has cut its sales forecast for the year ended May 2026 to ¥3.8bn, 5% below the figure it gave in April, but raised ordinary profit to ¥1.1bn and net income to the same level. The upgrade is mostly a timing story: the company now expects to book part of a JAXA Space Strategy Fund subsidy in the current year rather than from next year onward, and it plans to recognise a ¥100mn deferred-tax asset.
| Metric | Previous forecast | Revised forecast | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | ¥4.0bn | ¥3.8bn | Project-plan changes reduce sales and cost of sales |
| Operating profit | ¥1.2bn loss | ¥800mn loss | Subsidy-eligible R&D spending expected below plan |
| Ordinary profit | ¥600mn | ¥1.1bn | Some JAXA subsidy income expected in later periods will be booked in the current year |
| Net income | ¥500mn | ¥1.1bn | ¥100mn deferred-tax asset lowers tax expense |
Timing, not top line
QPS said project-plan changes in development and research work will leave both sales and cost of sales slightly lower than expected. It also expects subsidy-eligible research and development expenses to come in below plan, which improves the operating line by ¥400mn versus the earlier forecast, although management still guides to an operating loss of ¥800mn.
The bigger swing comes below operating profit. QPS said some subsidy income under JAXA's Space Strategy Fund, which it had expected to recognise in later periods, will instead be booked in the year just ended. The confirmed amount due to be recorded in the fourth quarter is ¥144mn, tied to part of the launch costs of QPS-SAR 15, the company's small SAR satellite that it said achieved its first image on January 23.
The policy backstop is much larger
That fourth-quarter booking is only the currently confirmed slice of a far larger support package. QPS said the initial grant under the JAXA program is ¥8.47bn, with the original grant period running through March 2027. The project theme is accelerating commercial satellite constellation build-out, and the specific development task is to speed mass production of small SAR satellites while strengthening functions aimed at competitive advantage.
JAXA has also allowed QPS to disclose a support ceiling of ¥21.24bn through March 2029, including the initial grant. But the company added a caveat that matters more than the headline number: the ceiling can change after a stage-gate review scheduled for the end of the year to March 2027. Put differently, the state backing is substantial, but this week's earnings boost also depends on when subsidy income and tax assets are recognised, not just on underlying business volume.