Komatsu raised its full-year forecasts on 29 October, lifting expected operating profit to ¥585bn from the ¥555bn it gave on 29 July. Sales are now forecast at ¥4.45tn (previously ¥4.302tn) and net profit at ¥382bn (previously ¥349bn).
The company gives two reasons. In construction and vehicles, demand in many regions ran above its initial assumption in April to September, and Komatsu expects the same for the full year. The yen was also weaker in the second quarter than assumed. The full-year average dollar rate is now ¥154.5, against ¥152.1 before, while the second-half assumption of ¥150 is unchanged.
| Metric | July forecast | Latest forecast | Year to March 2026 actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | ¥4.302tn | ¥4.45tn | ¥4.13tn |
| Operating profit | ¥555.0bn | ¥585.0bn | ¥567.3bn |
| Net profit attributable to shareholders | ¥349.0bn | ¥382.0bn | ¥376.4bn |
Sales grew faster than profit
For April to September, sales rose 14.1% to ¥2.16tn and operating profit rose 3.5% to ¥286.6bn. The operating margin fell 1.3 points to 13.3%. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose 9.2% to ¥191.9bn.
The July to September quarter alone was weaker on profit. Sales rose 13.6% to ¥1.12tn, but operating profit fell 1.2% to ¥135.1bn and the margin dropped to 12.1% from 13.9% a year earlier. In construction and vehicles, Komatsu says the weaker yen, higher volumes and better pricing were outweighed in the quarter by cost increases, and segment profit fell 4.5% to ¥114.3bn.
Over the half-year, the construction and vehicles profit bridge shows the yen adding about ¥40.9bn and pricing ¥27.3bn. Fixed costs subtracted ¥20.4bn and other cost differences ¥46.9bn. That cost line includes a US tariff effect of ¥39.7bn, partly offset by a tariff refund of ¥12.8bn.
Regional split
The regional picture in construction and vehicles is uneven, and the yen flatters it. External sales for the half-year rose 14.8%, but Komatsu's own figure excluding currency effects is 4.8%.
North America rose 24.8%, helped by infrastructure and rental demand, mining machinery sales and the weaker yen. Latin America rose 33.9% on copper-related mining sales, including in Chile. Africa rose 31.7% on gold mining and infrastructure demand, and Europe rose 11.3%.
Three markets fell. Middle East sales dropped 37.2%, which Komatsu attributes to the situation in the region. Asia fell 15.1%, with Indonesian coal mining limits weakening demand for mining machinery. Japan fell 3.9% as labour costs, material prices and labour shortages weighed on general and rental demand.
What the new forecast assumes
Komatsu now expects demand for its seven main machine types to grow 5% to 10% this fiscal year, up from 0% to 5% in July. Its mining machinery demand outlook improved to a 0% to 5% decline from 5% to 10%. In North America, second-quarter demand rose 14%, which Komatsu links to data-centre investment lifting rental demand, plus firm mining and energy demand. It expects Japan demand flat.
The forecast operating margin for the year is 13.1%, against 12.9% in the July forecast and 13.7% a year earlier.
The interim dividend stays at ¥95 a share, totalling ¥84.3bn, and the full-year forecast of ¥190 is unchanged. The expected consolidated payout ratio is 44.2%, against a stated policy of at least 40%.