BoJ keeps its hiking bias and speeds up ETF sales

Anthropic has registered a Japanese offering of Class A shares with an estimated ceiling of $3.5bn (¥552.9bn at the filing's rate), sold through six Japanese dealers, while Nasdaq approval, the price, the share count and the pricing date remain open.

What changed: The securities registration statement went to the Kanto Local Finance Bureau on November 2. The ceiling covers only the Japanese portion of a wider offering, and the filing says the final Japanese amount could differ significantly from the estimate. Anthropic applied on October 26 (US Eastern time) to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market; Nasdaq had not approved the listing when the filing was submitted, and no Japanese exchange listing is planned.

The move: No underwriting takes place in Japan. Mizuho Securities USA, Goldman Sachs & Co. and MUFG Securities Americas buy the shares as underwriters, and six Japanese securities firms take orders on their behalf. Rakuten Securities and SBI Securities handle retail demand. Japanese buyers need a foreign securities account with the dealer they use, and the tranche is distributed only by electronic prospectus delivery.

What to watch: The pricing date is expected between November 2026 and April 2027, though the filing says it could come in April 2027 or later. Insiders face a 180-day lock-up from pricing, and up to 365 days for the founders and certain large holders. Anthropic plans to use proceeds for working capital, capital spending including compute and infrastructure, and hiring; net proceeds are undetermined.

Finance Minister Katayama said on October 30 that the approved ¥1.148tn draw on the Middle East reserve leaves ¥735.9bn, the gasoline reference price rises to ¥175 in December, and winter power and gas support runs from December to February.

What changed: The cabinet approved the draw that morning, sized to cover costs through December. The subsidy reference price stays at ¥170 in October and November, then rises to ¥175 in December, and the government's thinking is to keep raising it by ¥5 a month toward spring. The reference price is a parameter of the subsidy scheme, not a retail pump price.

The number: The minister said the subsidy per litre now exceeds ¥50, which she called a record, and that public money is going out at more than ¥10bn a day. Lawmakers from ruling and opposition parties have called for a phased review and an exit strategy. She said a one-step rise in the reference price would be too large a jump for households and economic activity.

What to watch: Prime Minister Takaichi said electricity and gas support would start in December and run for three months, with a guide figure of ¥7,000 for the period. The minister gave no budget size or funding source for it. Whether anything continues from March is open, and the government will reconsider then, taking weather and energy prices into account.

Farallon Capital Management disclosed a 5.02% stake in Yamato Holdings and says it has proposed, by letter and in meetings, that the chairman leave the board and that all directors except the president be outside directors.

What changed: Farallon holds 18,108,700 shares, or 5.02% of the 360,496,492 shares outstanding. The reporting obligation arose on October 28 and the report was filed on November 2. It used ¥37.62bn of its own money with no borrowing, and states its purpose as pure investment plus constructive dialogue.

The move: Farallon proposes that the chairman, a representative director who led Yamato as president for many years, be removed as representative director and retire as a director. It also proposes a monitoring board in which every director except the president is an outside director. Farallon says Yamato cut its initial operating-profit forecast in each of the five years from the year to March 2022 to the year to March 2026; these are Farallon's assertions, and the filing supplies no response from Yamato.

What to watch: Farallon says it may propose further changes, from director appointments to mergers, dividend policy and capital policy. Whether to do so, and with what content and timing, is undecided. The filing does not say whether Yamato has agreed to either proposal.

Accenture's Japanese unit offers ¥8,500 a share for Global Security Experts, but holders of 59.83% will not tender and will sell to the company after a squeeze-out at ¥5,835 and ¥6,918.

What changed: The offer runs from 2 November to 15 December 2026 with no cap on purchases and a floor of 983,100 shares, or 6.48% of the reference share count. The two largest holders have agreed not to tender: the top holder with 39.57% and a Kanematsu Corporation subsidiary with 20.27%.

The catch: Those two holders will not receive ¥8,500. After the squeeze-out the company is to buy their shares for ¥5,835 and ¥6,918, prices the filing says are set so that after-tax proceeds roughly match tendering at ¥8,500. Holders who do not tender face a share consolidation, with an extraordinary meeting pencilled for early to mid February 2027, and would receive ¥8,500 per share held, with appraisal rights available.

Context: The price rose from ¥4,650 in the first proposal on 18 June to ¥8,500 on 7 October, and the buyer called it final. It is 6.52% above the 29 October close of ¥7,980. The company did not obtain a fairness opinion, the offer has no majority-of-minority condition, and four of 13 directors stayed out of the vote. The offer is not complete.

Macnica now expects ¥67.5bn of operating profit for the year to March 2027, 29.8% above its May forecast, on semiconductor demand, while its CPS Solutions segment is guided to a wider ¥8.0bn loss.

What changed: Macnica now expects revenue of ¥1.67tn, operating profit of ¥67.5bn and net profit of ¥46.0bn, against May forecasts of ¥1.3tn, ¥52.0bn and ¥32.0bn. Each increase is measured against the company's own earlier plan. The semiconductor segment's operating profit forecast rises to ¥56.5bn from ¥37.5bn, and first-half semiconductor sales were ¥721.3bn, up 46.7%.

The catch: CPS Solutions, which includes the autonomous-bus business, lost ¥4.6bn in the first half. Macnica says its Navya Mobility SAS subsidiary sold fewer finished vehicles than planned and that a customer cancelled a vehicle development programme. The segment's full-year targets are revenue of ¥11.0bn, down from ¥16.0bn, and an operating loss of ¥8.0bn, against ¥5.6bn before. Cybersecurity revenue is lifted to ¥216.0bn but its operating profit target is cut to ¥19.0bn from ¥20.1bn, and the presentation gives no reason.

Reader takeaway: Growth is consuming cash. Operating cash flow was an outflow of ¥32.6bn in the first half, mainly on higher receivables and inventories, and short-term borrowings rose ¥40.1bn to ¥115.9bn. Shareholders are paid regardless: the full-year dividend forecast is ¥90, up from ¥80, and a buyback of up to 1.6 million shares for up to ¥5bn runs from 4 November to 21 December.

Japan Airlines grew first-half sales 11.7%, but a 47.4% jump in fuel costs left EBIT down 36.0% at ¥70.2bn, and management kept its ¥180bn full-year EBIT forecast.

What changed: In the six months to September 30, sales rose 11.7% to ¥1.099tn while operating costs rose 16.5% to ¥1.038tn and fuel rose 47.4% to ¥285.6bn. EBIT fell 36.0% to ¥70.2bn, a 6.4% margin against 11.2% a year earlier, and profit attributable to owners of the parent fell 42.2% to ¥39.1bn.

Why it matters: JAL says Middle East tensions pushed up jet fuel prices and that the weak yen added to costs. Costs excluding fuel rose 8.0% to ¥752.6bn. Full-service carrier EBIT fell 45.3% to ¥41.6bn and low-cost carrier EBIT fell 73.0% to ¥1.8bn, while mileage, finance and commerce EBIT rose 5.4% to ¥22.2bn.

What to watch: JAL left its full-year forecasts unchanged, including EBIT of ¥180bn, down 17.4%, of which the first half produced ¥70.2bn. The ordinary-share interim dividend is ¥48, up from ¥46, with payments starting on December 10.

Paycloud Holdings says up to about 380 client companies of its Arara mail service lost email addresses and member data, about 77 million addresses on a provisional count, and the service is suspended with no restart date.

What changed: In a second report dated November 2, Paycloud raised the figure from roughly 3.01 million addresses reported on October 29 to about 77 million, provisional. The new count adds client companies' own environments, with 97 servers where email addresses and member data were confirmed taken. The data includes items such as names, birth dates, phone numbers and addresses, which vary by client. Paycloud says its Arara subsidiary's services hold no credit card numbers, and that the figure is not a count of end users because one person may hold several addresses.

The catch: The report splits the incident into separate buckets that Paycloud did not add together. Access through the service ran from October 28 to 31 and accounts for the 77 million figure. The shared environment from the first report involved 61 client companies and 3,386,187 unique addresses. Separately, a third party sent up to about 7.13 million suspicious emails imitating a credit card company between October 28 and 30.

What to watch: Arara halted the whole service on October 31 and gave no restart date, with resumption depending on identifying the entry route and replacing credentials. The company revised its cause, saying problems in the system environment also played a part. The effect on results for the year ending August 2027 is under review, with figures due in a third report.