Akatsuki Honsha is asking investors to hold two ideas at once: the current year should be steadier than exciting, but the next five years are meant to lift returns. The group forecast consolidated revenue of ¥70,000 million for the year ending March 2027, up 1.9%, while operating profit is expected to fall 10.8% to ¥5,600 million, ordinary profit 18.6% to ¥5,100 million, pretax profit 18.4% to ¥5,100 million and profit attributable to owners of parent 18.6% to ¥3,300 million. On the same day, it set a new five-year management scorecard that targets average ROE above 15% through March 2031.
Why this year looks softer
In securities, management says equity markets have been firm and client asset inflows through its IFA business are currently progressing, with assets under custody still rising. Even so, it is assuming revenue and profit roughly in line with the prior year because geopolitical tension and regional conflicts could still spill into resource prices and financial markets. In real estate, demand for used condominiums remains solid as new-build prices rise, but Akatsuki says last year's faster-than-expected sales left it with less inventory to sell this year. It is also flagging higher materials and procurement costs, plus the risk that higher interest rates weigh on property prices and margins. Offsetting that somewhat, the renovation business is expected to lift external completion volumes, and the group assumes one sale in its elderly-care facility development business.
The five-year scorecard
The new plan sets a group-level target of average ROE above 15% and aims to raise shareholders' equity from 209 oku yen at the end of March 2026 to more than 400 oku yen by March 2031, including shareholder returns. On payouts, Akatsuki says it will keep an annual DOE level of 4.0% so long as financial soundness is not impaired, and if a single year's ROE exceeds 4.0% it may use some or all of the excess for extra dividends or share buybacks.
For the securities business, the end-goal is assets under custody of 1 trillion 250 billion yen and parent-company shareholder profit of 25 oku yen. The real-estate business is targeting more than 1,300 used-condominium purchases and sales, plus parent-company shareholder profit of 33 oku yen. Management also says it wants stronger synergies between securities and property to broaden the earnings base and accelerate overall growth.
What is still uncertain
One important caveat is what the plan leaves out. Akatsuki says its investment securities portfolio had a group book value of 47 oku yen, market value of 83 oku yen and unrealized gains of 36 oku yen at the end of March 2026, but any sale or profit realization from that portfolio is not included in the March 2031 equity target. The company also notes that its larger securities business makes single-year earnings more volatile, even as it keeps publishing annual guidance that many securities-led groups avoid. Finally, the last year of the plan will mark 20 years under the current management structure, and Akatsuki says it will examine what a next-generation leadership setup, including external alliances, should look like. As the company itself notes, these are targets built on current assumptions, not guarantees.