MS&AD's latest annual disclosures ask investors to hold two thoughts at once. Net profit attributable to owners jumped 70.1 per cent to ¥510.6bn in the year to March 2026, insurance revenue rose 8.2 per cent to ¥6.44tn and the annual dividend increased to ¥160 a share from ¥145. Yet management is guiding for profit to fall to ¥425.0bn in the current year, even as it raises the annual dividend again, to ¥170.
| Metric | Year to March 2026 actual | Year to March 2027 outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance revenue | ¥6.44tn | ¥7.00tn |
| Net profit attributable to owners | ¥510.6bn | ¥425.0bn |
| Basic EPS | ¥342.98 | ¥292.91 |
| Annual dividend per share | ¥160.00 | ¥170.00 |
| Payout ratio | 46.6% | 58.0% |
That is why the forward guide matters more than the headline profit jump. MS&AD says revenue should keep growing, to ¥7.00tn, but it is not promising another year of profit expansion. The payout story is even sharper: the forecast payout ratio rises to 58.0 per cent from 46.6 per cent in the latest year. The figures point to more cash for shareholders, but less earnings underneath.
A strong year, especially in core non-life
Pretax profit reached ¥703.5bn. In the two main domestic non-life units, the combined ratio improved to 93.6 per cent from 96.6 per cent. Domestic natural-catastrophe incurred claims at those units fell to ¥25.3bn from ¥90.1bn, and overseas natural-catastrophe claims dropped to ¥9.7bn from ¥71.1bn.
The segment picture was mixed, but still clearly stronger overall. The two main domestic non-life units reported a simple combined ¥301.9bn in attributable profit, up from ¥176.2bn. Overseas insurance subsidiaries lifted attributable profit to ¥234.4bn from ¥177.3bn. Mitsui Sumitomo Aioi Life posted a ¥60.2bn loss, while Mitsui Sumitomo Primary Life made ¥127.3bn. At group level, insurance service profit came in at ¥525.4bn and financial profit at ¥261.0bn.
The dividend line still rises, with a special component intact
The total payout for the year just ended was ¥160 a share, made up of a ¥77.50 interim dividend and an ¥82.50 year-end dividend. The forecast for the current year is ¥170, split into two ¥85 payments. MS&AD says each of those includes a ¥70 ordinary dividend and a ¥15 special dividend.
That distinction matters. The higher headline payout is not just a straight lift in ordinary dividends, but the direction of travel is still clear: the company is lifting cash returns while guiding to a lower profit base.
The cooler guide is not uniform across the group
The year-ahead outlook softens at group level, but not every business line is moving the same way. In the presentation material, the two main domestic non-life units are guided to a simple combined ¥196.0bn in attributable profit, down from ¥301.9bn. Mitsui Sumitomo Primary Life is guided to ¥38.0bn from ¥127.3bn. By contrast, overseas operations are forecast to rise to ¥284.0bn from ¥234.4bn, and Mitsui Sumitomo Aioi Life is forecast to swing back to a ¥30.0bn profit from a ¥60.2bn loss.
MS&AD says the outlook is based on its own revenue forecasts, domestic new natural-disaster incurred claims of ¥83.0bn at Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance and ¥67.0bn at Aioi Nissay Dowa, and an assumption that interest rates, foreign exchange and equity markets do not move materially from end-March levels. It also warns that actual results could differ materially from those assumptions.
These are also the group's first annual results under voluntarily adopted IFRS, which MS&AD says is intended to improve international comparability. Useful, certainly. But the cleaner business message is simpler: last year's numbers were strong, the dividend is still heading up, and management's own map for the current year points to lower profit.